My 5/11/19 post was a Yellow Alert stating that the US stock market could be in at least an intermediate degree correction. Subsequent posts had 5/31/19 as the bulls-eye target
date for a potential bottom with a price range in the low SPX 2700 area. A bottom was made 6/3/19 - a new moon date and one trading day after the bulls-eye date. SPX bottom was at 2728 - three points above my estimated price zone.
On 6/5/19 the NYSE A/D line went down while the US stock market had a fairly large move up, there were also intraday RSI bearish divergences. This prompted my 6/6/19 post that
the SPX could soon plunge back to the 2700 to 2725 area.
Later, on 6/6/19 after the SPX trading session began the SPX moved above its 6/5/19 high invalidating the bearish signals. I now suspect the bearish A/D line while price indices moved up could be the sign of an old bull market. If US stocks continue to go to new highs we could see a few more negative A/D days as prices rise.
The move up in just four trading days after the 6/3/19 bottom has retraced more than 60% of the 22 trading day decline, daily MACD has a bullish crossover. There's a very high probability that the SPX is in the kick off phase of Intermediate degree wave (3) up. If so, the SPX could blow beyond the current all-time high of 2954. It could blow beyond 3000 and even move far above major Fib resistance at 3050. I've posted about SPX 3050 area as potential major resistance for more than one year. In a few trading days I could be posting why the SPX might reach 3300 by August 2019.
Bulls should now watch for shallow declines to go long or add to existing positions. Use the January to April 2019 rally as a guide for estimating subsequent corrections.
Mark
date for a potential bottom with a price range in the low SPX 2700 area. A bottom was made 6/3/19 - a new moon date and one trading day after the bulls-eye date. SPX bottom was at 2728 - three points above my estimated price zone.
On 6/5/19 the NYSE A/D line went down while the US stock market had a fairly large move up, there were also intraday RSI bearish divergences. This prompted my 6/6/19 post that
the SPX could soon plunge back to the 2700 to 2725 area.
Later, on 6/6/19 after the SPX trading session began the SPX moved above its 6/5/19 high invalidating the bearish signals. I now suspect the bearish A/D line while price indices moved up could be the sign of an old bull market. If US stocks continue to go to new highs we could see a few more negative A/D days as prices rise.
The move up in just four trading days after the 6/3/19 bottom has retraced more than 60% of the 22 trading day decline, daily MACD has a bullish crossover. There's a very high probability that the SPX is in the kick off phase of Intermediate degree wave (3) up. If so, the SPX could blow beyond the current all-time high of 2954. It could blow beyond 3000 and even move far above major Fib resistance at 3050. I've posted about SPX 3050 area as potential major resistance for more than one year. In a few trading days I could be posting why the SPX might reach 3300 by August 2019.
Bulls should now watch for shallow declines to go long or add to existing positions. Use the January to April 2019 rally as a guide for estimating subsequent corrections.
Mark