As we can see in on the graph since 2008 we are in the bull market, the trend is not broken yet, but there are some bearish signal and possible the biggest test in last 11 years in front of us.
We can see that S&P tested MA200 two times in past and each time there was bounce and trend continued to go up. But in both time we didn't have this big selloff, moreover, now we have oil crisis, COVID-19 bad news on a daily basis and also crises with fugitives in Europe. All at the same time, so have that in mind.
We can see that support was founded at fib level 0.236 (green circle) but on MACD we have clear bearish crossover and RSI still is not in oversold levels but obviously in the bearish zone. Also, MA200 is closing seriously to the current price and we will test it for sure in soon future.
So, what are the possible scenarios:
- we could have short relief and bounce on 0.236 fib levels, maybe tomorrow, but since there is no a single good news, I don't see that scenario happening
- what is more possible is that we will test MA200 somewhere around 2700 and see what will happen, if we broke down bellow MA200 I think we are one step closer to the recession and next support will be 2350, but this means up/bear trend will be broken and probably we will go much deeper
Disclaimer:
- this is not any kind of advice
- I am a noob, this is for my learning and training purposes
Comments are appreciated.
We can see that S&P tested MA200 two times in past and each time there was bounce and trend continued to go up. But in both time we didn't have this big selloff, moreover, now we have oil crisis, COVID-19 bad news on a daily basis and also crises with fugitives in Europe. All at the same time, so have that in mind.
We can see that support was founded at fib level 0.236 (green circle) but on MACD we have clear bearish crossover and RSI still is not in oversold levels but obviously in the bearish zone. Also, MA200 is closing seriously to the current price and we will test it for sure in soon future.
So, what are the possible scenarios:
- we could have short relief and bounce on 0.236 fib levels, maybe tomorrow, but since there is no a single good news, I don't see that scenario happening
- what is more possible is that we will test MA200 somewhere around 2700 and see what will happen, if we broke down bellow MA200 I think we are one step closer to the recession and next support will be 2350, but this means up/bear trend will be broken and probably we will go much deeper
Disclaimer:
- this is not any kind of advice
- I am a noob, this is for my learning and training purposes
Comments are appreciated.
