The_Unwind
Short

S+P 500 Alert ! Projection to S+P 500 2480 ! On Break of 2710

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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My own proprietary analysis of the S+P 500 Daily Futures Chart
overlaid with the S+P 500 SPX 4 Hour Chart
shows a 45 degree angle of descent trend line
from the 1/29/18 all time high in the March 2018 Futures Contract at 2878.50,
running straight down to catch the 10/11/18 SPX low of 2710.51.

I mean it was a bulls eye hit of support. Remarkable, if you could see what I am seeing.
And perhaps you were wondering why the recent S+P decline on stopped right at 2710.

So going forward,my own premise, assumption, and bottom line is this.
And it is finite, and will not change, unless the S+P 500 takes that support hit at 2710
and goes on to make new all time highs.

But for now..If S+P500 low of 10/11/18 at 2710.51 is broken decisively on a close,
and that 45 degree angle of support is violated in turn, which is pattern support holding up price...
then the trend line break of that support would suggest a 230 point projection down move.... to 2480 will be next.

A Caveat : As long as 2710 holds as S+P 500 Support, then this most bearish of forecasts, can be averted.

THE_UNWIND


What is your time frame for the 2710 to be broken?

I'm also curious about your analysis tool. I know you don't want to give up too details, but in general what methods are you using to predict?
Reply
The_Unwind mpulley
@mpulley,

I often measure distance of prior moves, in the case of 2710 to 2480 projection,
it was a measured move of 230 points from the all time high at 2940 to 2710 and then to 2480.
Simple laws of physics often apply, as much as they go in one direction, they often go in the opposite the smae exact distance.
I don't have a time frame for 2710, to be hit again. It was hit once, and offered very strong support for a bounce back rally to take place.
I'm just saying that if 2710 is broken to the downside decisively, then my target to the downside is 2480.
A word of warning..it may not go back down there again, and if that's the case,you'll know a primary important bottom is in place at 2710.

Yikes :) Have a great weekend mpulley.
Reply
Great analysis. We are today October 19th. I share the idea the 2710 support will be tested again. In case of some kind of upthrust today, which retracement should it achieve before plunging south to 2710?
Reply
The_Unwind elunder
@elunder,

elunder,

Since S+P has already hit 2710 this month,
going back to 2710 to retest that support at this time,
is not by any means guaranteed.
So be aware of that please.

Overhead,Immediate Resistance is at this weeks high of 2816.94.
Past that, strong resistance is found at 2840.

Thank you for your feedback.
Reply
Nice analysis and combination of prices. It there a particular ETF you use to short the S&P or NDX?
Reply
The_Unwind liberatedstocktrader
@liberatedstocktrader,

Yes.

To short the S+P I use (SPXS ) Direxion's 3 X Short S+P 500 Leveraged ETF
To short the NDX I use ( SQQQ) Pro Shares 3 X Short Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF.

Both offer mirror reflection moves of each index,with institutional liquidity and tight bid/ask spreads
.
A key advantage is that they both can be traded in pre-market and extended market trading hours,
with the same tight spreads as regular trading hours.

Both Pro Shares and Direxion are well respected leaders in ETF trading in the United States, offering a wide array of ETF products.
Expense ratio's are higher than normal for ETF's, but expenses are melded seemlessly into price.

Thanks for your feedback. Appreciated.
Reply
@The_Unwind, Fantastic, gonna short those puppies. :)
Reply
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