stelakis

SPX: expecting the low in the first three weeks of January

Long
SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
259 views
9
Recognizing that the first two days of any month is cash infusion to the market from mutual funds seeking desperately a target (and even more so in January), the action of the last two days was not surprising. While I do remain very bullish on SPX for the entire 2018, I am expecting a low around the 15 of January ... we dont time the market but we are actively seeking points of better trade entries. I do NOT like the shaping of the Bollinger Bands .. as we are forming a bubble - we need to deflate a bit... Right now everybody is happy, everybody is optimistic, etc and things are great... sounds like we may get "what" we deserve sometime soon and it will take us by surprise...like always....nevertheless the low does not have to be a way-below point in the chart... it will be the low for the given cyclical period... thats all... still a good entry point for those with remaining dry powder...

Comments

Very nice chart. Interestingly there is an important Bradley date on Jan 29th which is expected to be a significant low - this coincides exactly with your cycle analysis.
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January 18, 2018 will tie the longest time duration ever to not have a 5% pullback in the market. 394 days!
I would be very surprised if the market holds up a lot longer then that before at least a 5% pullback.
When this is complete we will have a very big correction.
Loot at the Wilshire 5000 index in relation to our GDP currently at 142.9% very close to the March of 2000 when it reached 148.5%
Anything over 100% is considered overvalued.
Also April 18, 2018 will make this the 2nd longest bull market since 1850's.
If the market can hold up past June 2019 it will make this the longest bull market in Us History!
Please share thoughts
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Yeah there is a possibility of this happening, and I would prefer it, however I'm looking for evidence of the market doing this before I am convinced this market is retracing
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you see something similar for qqq?
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