Stepping back and looking at the historical price movements of the market, leads us to consider the bull market as being finished for quite some time.
The Elliott wave count shows the finish of wave 5 of 5 and we are now looking for the corrective pattern to the longest bull market in US history.
The price should return to the previous wave 3-4 zone as shown....
So how do we get there?
With the sudden "shock" and collapse of the market (covid-19 trigger) we see a 5 wave pattern down ending about March 23. We have labelled this as green wave A.
We are now in a corrective green wave B up and should be looking for a high soon this month (May). This will provide another great opportunity to short yet again.
The blue Harmonic pattern could top out near the 70.7%-78.6% retracement of the March collapse as shown. We should begin to hear more bullish talk and optimism,
as the market recovers, and business begins to open up, fueling the bullish investors putting money back into the market again.
However we think this will be a bad move. We are beginning to look for shorting opportunities again.
The bigger green wave C down (red Bat pattern) into about Feb 2022(as late as Feb 2024) will be a long grinding 5 wave move down that will not be as steep as the initial crash we just experienced.
It will torture the investment psychology of everybody with no relief in sight.... a grinding and painful move down.
This will wipe out most of the baby boomer's investments since the 1980's.
Our targets as shown take us back to the prices last seen in 2009 and even lower to the late 1987 highs. Note the dashed brown lines. Note the completion of the red "Bat Pattern" Harmonic
We have drawn a down sloped channel reflecting the possible path lower, but the corrective B wave shown, might last longer than the month of May. This would simply encourage more traders to buy the V shaped recovery idea, go bullish near the top, just to loose as the huge wave C down will surprise everybody yet again.
We also have Placed a large yellow wave A as the bottom of a larger count in 2022 .... we could see USA as chopping sideways for decades in a huge ABCDE pattern such as a triangle for the first 1/2 of this century. This will be as destructive as the great depression.
The Elliott wave count shows the finish of wave 5 of 5 and we are now looking for the corrective pattern to the longest bull market in US history.
The price should return to the previous wave 3-4 zone as shown....
So how do we get there?
With the sudden "shock" and collapse of the market (covid-19 trigger) we see a 5 wave pattern down ending about March 23. We have labelled this as green wave A.
We are now in a corrective green wave B up and should be looking for a high soon this month (May). This will provide another great opportunity to short yet again.
The blue Harmonic pattern could top out near the 70.7%-78.6% retracement of the March collapse as shown. We should begin to hear more bullish talk and optimism,
as the market recovers, and business begins to open up, fueling the bullish investors putting money back into the market again.
However we think this will be a bad move. We are beginning to look for shorting opportunities again.
The bigger green wave C down (red Bat pattern) into about Feb 2022(as late as Feb 2024) will be a long grinding 5 wave move down that will not be as steep as the initial crash we just experienced.
It will torture the investment psychology of everybody with no relief in sight.... a grinding and painful move down.
This will wipe out most of the baby boomer's investments since the 1980's.
Our targets as shown take us back to the prices last seen in 2009 and even lower to the late 1987 highs. Note the dashed brown lines. Note the completion of the red "Bat Pattern" Harmonic
We have drawn a down sloped channel reflecting the possible path lower, but the corrective B wave shown, might last longer than the month of May. This would simply encourage more traders to buy the V shaped recovery idea, go bullish near the top, just to loose as the huge wave C down will surprise everybody yet again.
We also have Placed a large yellow wave A as the bottom of a larger count in 2022 .... we could see USA as chopping sideways for decades in a huge ABCDE pattern such as a triangle for the first 1/2 of this century. This will be as destructive as the great depression.