Most market watchers look only at the Price Dimension, to be successful you need to focus on all four market dimensions.
This is some of the data for the SPX at the close of November 2018.
Time Dimension: In my 10/31/18 post I noted there was an 80% chance the SPX could rally from November to January with November being seasonally the most bullish month.
November 2018 was a bullish month opening the door for continued rally into at least January.
Shorter term, stock market bottoms will occasionally occur at or near full moons. The 11/23/18 bottom came on a full moon.
Price Dimension: My 11/20/18 post noted that an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle from January 2018 may have been complete. Three days later and less than one point lower the Horizontal Triangle appears to be complete. Shorter term on 11/29/18 the SPX topped at an exact Fibonacci .666 retrace of the decline from wave "D" to "E". The next day the SPX pushed above this resistance and the declining trend line from October to November. This bullish break opens the door to reach the next resistance at SPX 2815-2816.
Momentum Dimension: Both the daily Stochastic and RSI are still in the neutral zone, implying more room for the SPX to rally.
Sentiment Dimension: Market Vane Inc polls traders in various markets to get their opinions on market direction. High numbers correspond with market tops low numbers with bottoms.
The SPX range for major and intermediate tops is around 70%, bottoms around 30%. Normally when a market rallies the bullish consensus numbers rise. However in Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle's corrections within a bull market, the bullish consensus numbers fall. This phenomenon is unique to Horizonal Triangles. Note as each higher bottom has a lower bullish consensus reading. This is quantitative evidence of a market climbing a wall of worry.
There's overwhelming evidence that the SPX could rally into at least January 2018.
My target for a major SPX peak remains 3050. Time frame February to March 2019 near the ten year anniversary of the bull market.
Mark
This is some of the data for the SPX at the close of November 2018.
Time Dimension: In my 10/31/18 post I noted there was an 80% chance the SPX could rally from November to January with November being seasonally the most bullish month.
November 2018 was a bullish month opening the door for continued rally into at least January.
Shorter term, stock market bottoms will occasionally occur at or near full moons. The 11/23/18 bottom came on a full moon.
Price Dimension: My 11/20/18 post noted that an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle from January 2018 may have been complete. Three days later and less than one point lower the Horizontal Triangle appears to be complete. Shorter term on 11/29/18 the SPX topped at an exact Fibonacci .666 retrace of the decline from wave "D" to "E". The next day the SPX pushed above this resistance and the declining trend line from October to November. This bullish break opens the door to reach the next resistance at SPX 2815-2816.
Momentum Dimension: Both the daily Stochastic and RSI are still in the neutral zone, implying more room for the SPX to rally.
Sentiment Dimension: Market Vane Inc polls traders in various markets to get their opinions on market direction. High numbers correspond with market tops low numbers with bottoms.
The SPX range for major and intermediate tops is around 70%, bottoms around 30%. Normally when a market rallies the bullish consensus numbers rise. However in Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle's corrections within a bull market, the bullish consensus numbers fall. This phenomenon is unique to Horizonal Triangles. Note as each higher bottom has a lower bullish consensus reading. This is quantitative evidence of a market climbing a wall of worry.
There's overwhelming evidence that the SPX could rally into at least January 2018.
My target for a major SPX peak remains 3050. Time frame February to March 2019 near the ten year anniversary of the bull market.
Mark