Weekly Analysis of S&P 500 Index

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The analysis suggests that we are in the bullish third wave. The third wave will go on till 2230 being the next target. Any resistance shown at 2230 will bring the price down to 1629.36 and form a fourth wave.

Final Conclusion: Go long till 2230 is met and watch the prices closely. If the prices break above, I will be posting charts showing the next targets. If as expected, we see resistance in the area, take short positions till 1629 is achieved.

Good luck.
Unless your wave 3 is actually a wave C and the rise since 2009 is actually a corrective wave 2. Do you consider this as a possibility?

mikeoakster MichaelColantoni
I see the rise since 2009 as a wave 5 in the form of an ending diagonal, in which we are at wave D, then meaning we would still have a wave E before the decline.
MichaelColantoni mikeoakster
Certainly one of the possibilities. My only real comment on that is that the projected wave 4 would be disproportionate to wave 2 in that scenario as Ending Diagonals, as I understand them, do not expand but are, rather, either parallels or contracting.
Am I on the wrong track, do you think? I would be interested in your derivation of the ending diagonal.
Elliottician MichaelColantoni
When I had a look at the monthly chart, it did not seem as a possibility to me Michael. But of course, I can be wrong. Elliott waves are indeed tricky and always offer alternate counts. But in my opinion and experience, I believe we may be moving into a huge Bull market in the coming decade. Let's find out how the markets react to US elections.
MichaelColantoni Elliottician
Thanks. Interesting perspective - certainly as correct as any other, and better than most. Robert Prechter would endorse your approach, I am sure.
I would be interested in seeing your views on the Australian market as it is my home market and I am primarily a SPI trader. Do you ever look at that?
As a final comment, I often use momentum as a final perspective when the wave count is ambiguous. I find that the down leg from 2007 to 2009 exceeds, negatively, the positive momentum extremes of the 2009 to 2015 wave up. This is true for all perspectives (weekly and monthly, short and long views) except the long view of the monthly where the momentum could be indicating a wave 3 up or a wave C up. This is a long winded way of saying that the jury is out but that either count, at this point, is valid and will be further clarified by the momentum and structure of whatever significant correction will or may unfold.
Do you use momentum in this way at times? Please excuse the long commentary - I am keen to find other perspectives than mine so I first explain the background of my view to elucidate a response.
Thank you for your work.
Elliottician MichaelColantoni
I agree with you. I'll analyse the AUS200 for you. But I must warn you, taking a lot of opinions about the markets you want to trade in is simply going to cloud the judgement you have about it. For every yes, there will be people saying otherwise. So I request you to follow your analysis. After all, as good speculators, aren't we supposed to take the opposite side of the mass speculation which people come up with ;) .. Anaway, I'll analyse the AUS200 and post the link to the chart over here. Best of luck :)
Elliottician Elliottician