Bearish 20/50 cross on the weekly candle just passed.
In previous crash / corrections it was all but done by the time this cross passed. But is this crash / correction the same as previous?
Well no I dont think it is... But its important to not get too bogged down in bias. I think what started as a potential short covering rally has suddenly and sneakily become very bullish with FED announcement today, yet again showing how the chart will just do the opposite of what those in camp "exogenous cause" would expect but also leave chartists head scratching. Term taken from Prechter in his perspectives of socionomics. But really this game is clearly about entrapment and deception that as Prechter pointed out is why there is so much news talk.
Anyhow I did say that due to increasing momentum the downtrend would not be denied, but now this very bullish candle cannot really be ignored.
So where's it going?
Well... Up I think...
Such a bullish candle is not just going to top and so now it will probably get to a 0.618 for a deeper retracement rather than a 0.382 for continuation.
And of course its not improbable for it to be a 0.5 but indexes seem to like finding the phi extremities and 0.5 isn't that.
So 0.618 with a shakeout reversal extremity extending to around 0.75 is common. The question is whether that will be from the top or the lcoal top or previous thrust candle. And this is the difficult aspect of using fibonacci is you can end up with many permutations.
But its not going to be the top yellow I dont think. With such a similar low it will be simply covering old ground and that doesn't make sense on what appears to be the Titanic.
So it will be one of the other two i think and we'll see how things develop.
My updated guess is that it will be the middle blue fibonacci around $4486. If it gets there it can then perform a shakeout pattern through the 20 and 50MAs to trap longs. Also looking at the size of the current candle which isn;t done for the week yet the green $4396 feels a bit too soon considering that more candles and wicks are probably to come.
So i'll be watching each fib and who knows it could still reverse suddenly as I said in previous thread it is at a triple top. But after a further look at more time frames I dont think so.
$4486 if it gets there I'll enter a short using the fib alone, just as I did at $4632 and if price gets to 0.8 $4516 I will consider the fib incorrect.
If it breaks down significantly I will revert to method ala @jojofang0901, and look for a continuation pattern to catch further downside.
Lastly I'm not considering to get long as my bias is very much that this is a crash structure. Monthly MACD cross, death cross etc. I dont want to be long before a real selling climax.
Not advice.
In previous crash / corrections it was all but done by the time this cross passed. But is this crash / correction the same as previous?
Well no I dont think it is... But its important to not get too bogged down in bias. I think what started as a potential short covering rally has suddenly and sneakily become very bullish with FED announcement today, yet again showing how the chart will just do the opposite of what those in camp "exogenous cause" would expect but also leave chartists head scratching. Term taken from Prechter in his perspectives of socionomics. But really this game is clearly about entrapment and deception that as Prechter pointed out is why there is so much news talk.
Anyhow I did say that due to increasing momentum the downtrend would not be denied, but now this very bullish candle cannot really be ignored.
So where's it going?
Well... Up I think...
Such a bullish candle is not just going to top and so now it will probably get to a 0.618 for a deeper retracement rather than a 0.382 for continuation.
And of course its not improbable for it to be a 0.5 but indexes seem to like finding the phi extremities and 0.5 isn't that.
So 0.618 with a shakeout reversal extremity extending to around 0.75 is common. The question is whether that will be from the top or the lcoal top or previous thrust candle. And this is the difficult aspect of using fibonacci is you can end up with many permutations.
But its not going to be the top yellow I dont think. With such a similar low it will be simply covering old ground and that doesn't make sense on what appears to be the Titanic.
So it will be one of the other two i think and we'll see how things develop.
My updated guess is that it will be the middle blue fibonacci around $4486. If it gets there it can then perform a shakeout pattern through the 20 and 50MAs to trap longs. Also looking at the size of the current candle which isn;t done for the week yet the green $4396 feels a bit too soon considering that more candles and wicks are probably to come.
So i'll be watching each fib and who knows it could still reverse suddenly as I said in previous thread it is at a triple top. But after a further look at more time frames I dont think so.
$4486 if it gets there I'll enter a short using the fib alone, just as I did at $4632 and if price gets to 0.8 $4516 I will consider the fib incorrect.
If it breaks down significantly I will revert to method ala @jojofang0901, and look for a continuation pattern to catch further downside.
Lastly I'm not considering to get long as my bias is very much that this is a crash structure. Monthly MACD cross, death cross etc. I dont want to be long before a real selling climax.
Not advice.
Comment:
Well it now appear very clear that it was all in fact a short squeeze really and strong rejection at 0.382. So back to the crash scenario.
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Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
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