The_Unwind
Short

Capitulation False Breakout

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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31
1037 28
There was significant capitulation in the market today,on the mid-day breakout above S+P 2820.
Capitulation means that unrealized paper loses from short trades
made from last weeks low at 2722 and up
were covered in mass today on the breakout to 2830 high.

Chande Momentum Indicator showh here,shows the intra-day peak in momentum
and then the immediate sell off, simply showing that today's rally
has been a short covering excercise, of traders who had enough pain and simply wanted out.

Today's breakout to new 2019 highs,
can thus potentially be labelled as a" Exhaustion/Terminal Breakout Failure
to set up a potentially significant downside reversal in the markets, next week.

SPX Last 2823.90

THE_UNWIND
3/15/19
Mountains/New York
I spotted the 148 resistance in ETH that so far worked as a clock, let´s see what´s next.
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Some great content here - in the publishing and comments - thanks
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The_Unwind dRends35
@dRends35,

Thank you.
+1 Reply
CMF and Macd look down... great indicator choice... I wonder what indicators are the Algos using. I guess is all about hunting shorts. Witching as gvoo said it. Is all there is... we are hunted. The solution... spread your bets and target globally.
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If we can believe the statistics it will keep going up until the fomc press conference is over.
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We now have a bearish divergence on SPX with these new highs. Low of the year on VIX. Massive VIX april / may call buying (500,000+ contracts) and massive VIX May put selling. And we also have RUT, DJI, Transportation and other indices not supporting the bullish engulfing weekly candle pattern present on NDX and SPX. More upward momentum could follow as flow has been very bullish. But there's a fair chance of a rug pull going into next week.
+3 Reply
The_Unwind dedeburn
@dedeburn,

Thanks for the excellent observations/confirming evidence..
Good to see you again.
+1 Reply
dedeburn The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, For sure! Always enjoy reading your analysis! I'm not sure what to expect. I think it's likely we get a pullback next week. But SPX and NDX can remain bullish long after Trans, RUT, and others fail. Last year SPX and NDX continued for a full 30 days. So it's hard to say exactly what will happen. But I 100% agree today felt like short capitulation on SPX.
+1 Reply
dedeburn dedeburn
@dedeburn, Something that might work in our favor...after the close https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3001943/trump-xi-meeting-end-trade-war-may-be-put-back-june-sources so far the market doesn't seem to care about bad news at all. We'll see if we gap down on Monday. Sunday afternoon should be telling.
+1 Reply
LoLBeach dedeburn
@dedeburn, korekt sir
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