Update to chart linked below. In that chart it was noted that HYG had at tendency to bottom at or before SPY during pullbacks. The average since beginning of 2013 was for HYG to bottom three days prior to SPY but occurrences ranged from same day to six days prior.
After breaking the rising trend support going back to 2009 the selling in HYG has picked up momentum. Short term it looks like HYG is approaching an area that has been important in the past. That range appears to be 86-87.25. I think this is an area worth watching, a ST bottom here would likely help SPY find a bottom as well next week. A bottom that might last at least through the end of the year.
However, If HYG slices right through that support area it would likely not be a good sign and would almost certainly lead to further selling of SPY. Looking further out, if support is found near ~87, i suspect the the next area of support 82.5-83.5 will still be tested at some point in the near future. The selling in HYG for now has been largely attributed to Energy companies highly leveraged to price of oil. However, it seems quite naive to think that the energy sector was the only sector to see a significant mis-pricing of high yield risk over the past couple years.
After breaking the rising trend support going back to 2009 the selling in HYG has picked up momentum. Short term it looks like HYG is approaching an area that has been important in the past. That range appears to be 86-87.25. I think this is an area worth watching, a ST bottom here would likely help SPY find a bottom as well next week. A bottom that might last at least through the end of the year.
However, If HYG slices right through that support area it would likely not be a good sign and would almost certainly lead to further selling of SPY. Looking further out, if support is found near ~87, i suspect the the next area of support 82.5-83.5 will still be tested at some point in the near future. The selling in HYG for now has been largely attributed to Energy companies highly leveraged to price of oil. However, it seems quite naive to think that the energy sector was the only sector to see a significant mis-pricing of high yield risk over the past couple years.
