The_Unwind

Finally Capitulation.. Potential VERY BULLISH REVERSAL Day

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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In one of the wildest 24 hour trading periods,
that I have seen in many "moons,'
the stock market appears to have put in
an important bottom today
with the SPX Low of 2621.53

By doing that, the S+P has put in a potential
a HIGHER Monthly Bottom in December,
than October's SPX 2603.54 LOW.

The rally began to legitimize itself,
late this afternoon, on a breakout
back above SPX 2670 a very important support,
on a Wall Street Journal report that the FED
may take a "WAIT and SEE" APPROACH" to raising interest rates further,
...thus immediately calling into question whether they will in fact
they will raise rates again at their Dec 19 Meeting,
which the street had priced into the market
with almost COMPLETE CERTAINTY was a given
as to not be bullied by political or market pressures to do otherwise.

Today's trading, filling the daily downside gap almost completely,
this afternoon was a very important OUTSIDE trading day,
trading below the range of the last 5 days in November
when a bottom was put in at 2632.

Today we broke below 2632 Double Bottom Low
cleaned out 10 points of HEAVY DUTY STOPS,
before REVERSING back to the outside above 2632,
and then it was off to the races.

5 minute RSI , which I use all day long,
to quantify important short term trend changes,
CONFIRMED this rally today, as the low in 5 minute RSI ,
was found at today's OPEN.

This was a capitulation in the market today.
There is no other way to read it.
The Bulls finally made there presence KNOWN,
that they were again a force to be reckoned with,
after being in hibernation for a what seemed like forever.

As long as the S+P stays above today's low of 2621,53
I would view today as a meaningful test,
and a IMPORTANT REACTION LOW..on the CHART.

Bottom Line : Important Update
I am now NEUTRAL on the S+P 500
until such time that further quantified evidence presents itself.to me.

I am NOT BULLISH , BUT I AM NOT BEARISH EITHER,
as of the 12/6/18 Close.

RESISTANCE IS KNOWN at 2800, SUPPORT IS NOW KNOWN at 2621
SPX Last 2995.95 12/6/18

PS.
And one final thing, those of you who are looking at
Death Crosses should recognize one important point.
That is a lagging confirmation indicator,
often found at BOTTOMS, in MAJOR TURNING POINTS in the market.

The market has already priced in all of that in !

While you might be looking at a Death Cross
in the S+P as confirming Bearish evidence of trend,
the market could be forming the "potion",
for an immediate return to 2800 ..soon.

THE_UNWIND
12/6/18
NEW YORK




Dec 06
Comment: Correction:
SPX Last was.. 2695.95.. on 12/6/18

Comments

after closing all my sells at the very bottom you're spoling all my pleasure to short this market again from what i saw as a good re-entry point to short :S
Reply
The_Unwind lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott,

Lapin,

You are the man. You're the one who decided to short the rally to 2800
immediately on Monday.
You have a 180 Point range to do your magic. 2800-2620.
Focus on your trade. And keep your blinders on to all the noise around you.
I know you'll do fine.
Update me when you can.
Reply
lapin_eliott The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, if i try to forget your analysis, what i see is that on a daily and 4H time scale the geometrical configuration of the MMI curves hints massively for more downside, but you have brought doubts in my mind now
Reply
The_Unwind lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott,


Really...? Ha
Reply
The_Unwind lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott,

Follow your own muse.
Above all else.
Reply
The_Unwind lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott,

I hope you stayed in your zone,
and are participating in this blind side to some ..downside reversal today,
You obviously saw something that I didn't.
I gave kudos to you in my latest S+P post today.
Thanks again. Your insights were as they say nowadays "spot on"
Reply
lapin_eliott The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, 50000$ profits were enough for yesterday .... i missed a 40000$ opportunity because you freaked me out ^^ but i tracked the SP500 through eurjpy to which it is strongly correlated so today was still profitable :) i think like "machines" and for them the geometrical constraints of the MMI curves are ultra important and some turning points and blockades appears brightly when you use these geometrical eyes. what i see from these eyes was in opposition with your analysis coming from the dynamics and balance between bulls and bears, si i have been struck with doubts suddenly .... not a big deal, sp500 has still much room to fall to grasp
Reply
lapin_eliott The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, as always eurjpy one of the most toxic but decisive pair holds the key of everything, and i have my reson to think that eurjpy is right in the middle of a change of regime whose nature will be exposed soon
Reply
Fantastic analysis, I couldn't make sense of what happened the last few days, great points helps put it all together
Reply
@ATCTA,

Jay.

Thanks.

For every season, we must as they say "turn, turn, turn"
And look at the new when it finally appears,
even if..its just a short burst of color in front of all the darkness,
we are seeing.
Reply
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