TanayUK
Short

S&P 500 Short: Fundamental and Technical

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
3 months ago
The S&P 500 index             is breaking all time highs every week. However, it looks set for a fall.

Fundamental: The US economy is strong. NFP was healthy, and whilst GDP missed on expectations, the FOMC's last statement was hawkish. In the medium term, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates, which should put pressure on the global stock market .

Technical: The weekly and monthly charts are showing strong divergence. On the weekly chart, the S&P 500             has been outside an 800-period BB for months. On the monthly chart, there is strong divergence which historically points to a long overdue, deep correction in the stock market .

In the short term, the index may test 2200.

However, in the medium to long term, it is due for a correction, perhaps to the 1900 level (a missed monthly pivot).

Furthermore, a break below 1800 (recent support from January 2016) should open the doors for a further decline.
2 months ago
Comment: On Friday, the SPX closed down at 2123. The next interim target is the 2000 level, however, how long it takes to get there is unpredictable.
Reekardo
3 months ago
what chart are you talking about? so the breakout after 2 year consolidation means nothing?
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TanayUK PRO Reekardo
3 months ago
Hi mate, I'm talking about the divergence on the monthly chart, and the uncorrected move to the upside on the weekly chart (the index has been outside the 800-period BB for months on a weekly chart).

The breakout after a 2 year consolidation would mean something, if it was supported by strong fundamental reasons. IMO the move to the upside is overdone, and we might see a deep correction especially after the US election when the Fed might become more hawkish.

Also, the stock market goes in cycles. Since 2008-9, we haven't had a major correction in stocks. Interest rates have been ridiculously low for 8 years. The amount of debt accumulated is unbelievable. If interest rates do start to rise, this may be the beginning of a bear cycle in the stock market.
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IvanIcey
3 months ago
wouldn't go against central bank bids right now.
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TanayUK PRO IvanIcey
3 months ago
you always get the story after the move has happened though :) so might as well try
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