SP500 Monthly Analysis

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
Not religious, but please god, make it stop...break out already!!!

3 months without a new significant high. The top of the range in terms of opening/closing prices is around 2106.75. The bottom is at 2063.5. It's basically the stupid range we've been stuck in for 3 months now.

We're getting really close to the top of that range, so it's breakout or reversal time "soon".

A couple of things to note:

- DI+ shows a divergence with price. It has failed to make new highs while price did. Pretty decent signal that a reversal should happen, especially given it's a divergence on the monthly chart which is pretty reliable.

- ADX , trend strength, has declined since September 2014...basically around the time interest rate hike talk intensified a bit. I'm sure some people took it more seriously, but in the end, the Fed seems to push back the date more and more. Consensus seems to target Q4 2015. If the economic stats worsen, this could be pushed into 2016. If that happens, I can see the SP500             move up even further or at least continue ranging like this.

- DI+ or DI- really need to get above 20 again for trend confirmation. Right now, they're chilling below that level which sucks.

If 2063.5 breaks, I'll be target the "pink" levels on the chart. If 2106.75 breaks to the upside, I'll just continue doing the only thing I can If it sticks inside this stupid range, I'll just sell at the top and buy at the bottom.

In short, for now I'm not a huge fan of trading the SP500             , we're too close to the top of the range. Having said that, I'm on the lookout for a potential reversal down to 2063.5 (or lower of course). So far, I haven't seen that sign yet.

Expecting more choppiness until price either reverses or breaks out.

If you're after a longer term position trade, I'd wait until price makes up its mind. The trend is clearly long at the moment, but we're at a key level for a potential reversal. LOL if the spike down last October was all the reversal we'll get in the next few months :D
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