Ok, so here we go, more than 200 handles up from the Sept low. Market lifted by earnings and improving global economic outlook? Nope. Inflated again by joint intervention of central banks. And as you see, strangely for SP500 even a rate hike would be great... at least this is what market thinks now.
As I often say, Price is the only thing that matters. Beliefs and thoughts don't matter until Price doesn't justify them! So regardless I believe equities will face a turbulent 2016 if not a collapse in 1 year time, I can not bet on it in large size, until Price action tells me risk/reward is in my favour. However I can still hold small short in indexes against some other individual bullish positions and I can still call attention for question marks regarding this rally!
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is neutral, Price is in the Kumo cloud, Chikou Span is back to past candles. To turn it bullish, price has to break and stay above 2115, which would also bring a bullish Chikou Span cross above price.
- Price retesting previously broken bullish trendline and horizontal level. 2075-2100 should act as resistance, especially after such a 4 weeks rally.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, but market is extremely overbought: haDelta reached an extreme high and it looks toppish! Price should start to consolidate in 2035-2095 area in coming weeks to eliminate this overbought situation.
- Financial year is close for some of US Asset managers. Will they book/lock profit after such a roller coaster year, or will they stick to their beloved longs?
Daily:
- There was no roof top resistance at 2045-2050, price moved further up. Ichimoku is bullish, but price is still too far above equilibrium (Kijun and Senkou B). Chikou Span reached past Kumo - will it finally be some kind of resistance?
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, but haDelta has been building a serious negative divergence compared to Price. It means one thing: Price tries to consolidate but then pops from time to time on individual impulses. These impulses are nothing else, but Central Bank interventions, announcements.
- Support levels are: 2060 (trigger) and 2040 (short term retracement). Lower there is 2020 and 2000, these are stronger supports.
Now as we only have BoJ left on Friday, all "drog dealers" will finish pumping the addict market. Will it finally show correction with now more short term cuts, easings, promises, talks?
I don't expect this market to collapse or turn massive bearish now. But I think it is extremely overbought and should make some form of correction lower. That means nothing else but a healthy pull back and also consolidation within the weekly Kumo. Maybe it will range trade in 2040-2090 until year end? Of course you can never know what's next, maybe it just balloons higher to 2120 again. Trade only on clear signals and be cautious!
As I often say, Price is the only thing that matters. Beliefs and thoughts don't matter until Price doesn't justify them! So regardless I believe equities will face a turbulent 2016 if not a collapse in 1 year time, I can not bet on it in large size, until Price action tells me risk/reward is in my favour. However I can still hold small short in indexes against some other individual bullish positions and I can still call attention for question marks regarding this rally!
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is neutral, Price is in the Kumo cloud, Chikou Span is back to past candles. To turn it bullish, price has to break and stay above 2115, which would also bring a bullish Chikou Span cross above price.
- Price retesting previously broken bullish trendline and horizontal level. 2075-2100 should act as resistance, especially after such a 4 weeks rally.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, but market is extremely overbought: haDelta reached an extreme high and it looks toppish! Price should start to consolidate in 2035-2095 area in coming weeks to eliminate this overbought situation.
- Financial year is close for some of US Asset managers. Will they book/lock profit after such a roller coaster year, or will they stick to their beloved longs?
Daily:
- There was no roof top resistance at 2045-2050, price moved further up. Ichimoku is bullish, but price is still too far above equilibrium (Kijun and Senkou B). Chikou Span reached past Kumo - will it finally be some kind of resistance?
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, but haDelta has been building a serious negative divergence compared to Price. It means one thing: Price tries to consolidate but then pops from time to time on individual impulses. These impulses are nothing else, but Central Bank interventions, announcements.
- Support levels are: 2060 (trigger) and 2040 (short term retracement). Lower there is 2020 and 2000, these are stronger supports.
Now as we only have BoJ left on Friday, all "drog dealers" will finish pumping the addict market. Will it finally show correction with now more short term cuts, easings, promises, talks?
I don't expect this market to collapse or turn massive bearish now. But I think it is extremely overbought and should make some form of correction lower. That means nothing else but a healthy pull back and also consolidation within the weekly Kumo. Maybe it will range trade in 2040-2090 until year end? Of course you can never know what's next, maybe it just balloons higher to 2120 again. Trade only on clear signals and be cautious!
