As I often say, Price is the only thing that matters. Beliefs and thoughts don't matter until Price doesn't justify them! So regardless I believe equities will face a turbulent 2016 if not a collapse in 1 year time, I can not bet on it in large size, until Price action tells me risk/reward is in my favour. However I can still hold small short in indexes against some other individual positions and I can still call attention for question marks regarding this rally!
- is neutral, Price is in the Kumo cloud, Chikou Span is back to past candles. To turn it , price has to break and stay above 2115, which would also bring a Chikou Span cross above price.
- Price retesting previously broken and horizontal level. 2075-2100 should act as resistance, especially after such a 4 weeks rally.
- Heikin Ashi is , but market is extremely overbought: haDelta reached an extreme high and it looks toppish! Price should start to consolidate in 2035-2095 area in coming weeks to eliminate this overbought situation.
- Financial year is close for some of US Asset managers. Will they book/lock profit after such a roller coaster year, or will they stick to their beloved longs?
- There was no roof top resistance at 2045-2050, price moved further up. is , but price is still too far above equilibrium (Kijun and Senkou B). Chikou Span reached past Kumo - will it finally be some kind of resistance?
- Heikin Ashi is , but haDelta has been building a serious negative divergence compared to Price. It means one thing: Price tries to consolidate but then pops from time to time on individual impulses. These impulses are nothing else, but interventions, announcements.
- Support levels are: 2060 (trigger) and 2040 (short term retracement). Lower there is 2020 and 2000, these are stronger supports.
Now as we only have BoJ left on Friday, all "drog dealers" will finish pumping the addict market. Will it finally show correction with now more short term cuts, easings, promises, talks?
I don't expect this market to collapse or turn massive now. But I think it is extremely overbought and should make some form of correction lower. That means nothing else but a healthy pull back and also consolidation within the weekly Kumo. Maybe it will range trade in 2040-2090 until year end? Of course you can never know what's next, maybe it just balloons higher to 2120 again. Trade only on clear signals and be cautious!
If you use my EMA_MUSIC_STAVE_BY_COWBEARCAR, you will see the green calculated line give /\ turn(pivot).
Moving average lag about 1/2 of the candle time, but still better when it break EMA7 to confirm change of trend.
For Evening star pattern, DJI will more easily to see.
In Hong Kong, HSI drop to 22620 which is SMA 20, it suppose does every market in the world, State, Japan, England, German etc.
Well, if this go Elliott wave theory, it will strong big drop on C wave.
It may possible end of 7 years bullish trend, but the main concern is the US Dollar go upward or not.
US Dollar is reverse co-relate with all stock market and products, if US Dollar strong uptrend, everything drops.