- No change in setup, but Price is flirting with the and Tenkan Sen.
- Heikin Ashi candle is , haDelta/SMA3 further down, may dip below zero line.There is serious negative divergence in haDelta/SMA3 compared to price.
- Supports are: 2050 / 2000 / 1950-1970. Below 1950 market could reverse to strategic .
- setup losing its bias, but price is still trading at Kijun Sen. Please note that daily Kumo is very thin below price, it is not such a strong possible support as before (it would be easy to break down in case).
- Heikin Ashi signal has been firm for a few days, but price trades within 1-1,5 % range, which is incredibly thin. haDelta/SMA3 could not get far away from zero line either.
- Real question now if the can hold or finally breaks? Most important short term supports are marked by Kijun Sen and the red horizontal lines below are: 2100 / 2090 / 2080.
A break and close below 2080-2090 could be a start of a bigger move.
p.s.: According to my strategic view, I have been holding short SP500 and NAS100 positions for more than 5 weeks now (3 weeks on avg). Looking to increase only if the and horizontal lvls break.
My global and longer term view is still the same: CPI will start to increase (in fact European CPI figures already show there is no deflationary risk at all), no need for ECB at all! European bonds will be under selling pressure, with Bund being leader, EUR may be squeezed up as well. Jump in bond yields will finally trigger a selling in equities too. may start to reverse later this year. So I am slowly positionning my portfolio towards this asset allocation:
- small-medium weight Bond shorts
- small weight Equity Indx shorts - only in US mkts, not in Europeans (there we may still see some buy squeeze if Greece will be out of the woods, and I think US is more expensive by all measures)
- Initial long positions in different ( Wheat , Soybeans , Sugar , Silver , Gold )
- Largest part in cash, diversified, but with some EUR overweight, not holding USD at all.
What is more important, that after retesting the previous wedge bottom it turned lower again, and by now it is trading below the Kumo. However for a text book valid bearish Kumo breakout we'd need to see the break of 2050.