Kumowizard

SP500 - At the wedge. Attack or defend? Focus on 2080-2090

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
244 6 7
In fact SP500             price has not been doing anything really during last 4 weeks... quiet before the storm?

Weekly:
- No change in Ichimoku setup, but Price is flirting with the wedge and Tenkan Sen.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish , haDelta/SMA3 further down, may dip below zero line.There is serious negative divergence in haDelta/SMA3 compared to price.
- Supports are: 2050 / 2000 / 1950-1970. Below 1950 market could reverse to strategic bearish .

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup losing its bullish bias, but price is still trading at Kijun Sen. Please note that daily Kumo is very thin below price, it is not such a strong possible support as before (it would be easy to break down in case).
- Heikin Ashi signal has been firm bearish for a few days, but price trades within 1-1,5 % range, which is incredibly thin. haDelta/SMA3 could not get far away from zero line either.
- Real question now if the wedge can hold or finally breaks? Most important short term supports are marked by Kijun Sen and the red horizontal lines below are: 2100 / 2090 / 2080.

A break and close below 2080-2090 could be a start of a bigger bearish move.

p.s.: According to my strategic view, I have been holding short SP500             and NAS100             positions for more than 5 weeks now (3 weeks on avg). Looking to increase only if the wedge and horizontal lvls break.

My global and longer term view is still the same: CPI             will start to increase (in fact European CPI             figures already show there is no deflationary risk at all), no need for ECB QE             at all! European bonds will be under selling pressure, with Bund             being bearish leader, EUR may be squeezed up as well. Jump in bond yields will finally trigger a selling in equities too. Commodities may start to reverse bullish later this year. So I am slowly positionning my portfolio towards this asset allocation:
- small-medium weight Bond shorts
- small weight Equity Indx             shorts - only in US mkts, not in Europeans (there we may still see some buy squeeze if Greece will be out of the woods, and I think US is more expensive by all measures)
- Initial long positions in different commodities ( Wheat             , Soybeans             , Sugar             , Silver             , Gold             )
- Largest part in cash, diversified, but with some EUR overweight, not holding USD at all.
2use
a year ago
Daily says head and shoulders?
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Kumowizard PRO 2use
a year ago
Can be, but this pattern is too tight in terms of % range and levels. So if it is, then measured tgt will be ard 2035-2040 for H&S.
What is more important, that after retesting the previous wedge bottom it turned lower again, and by now it is trading below the Kumo. However for a text book valid bearish Kumo breakout we'd need to see the break of 2050.
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2use Kumowizard
a year ago
noted!
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A bearish point of view
SP500 Outlook
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Kumowizard PRO Realisto_FX
a year ago
yeah, I read this analysis from you before. Pretty much the same... just without the Ichimoku indicator. MA200 will be very important, either in coming days or sometimes later. But that is something that long term western-style technical trend followers love to watch as main indicator!
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SPY on a bollinger band width is in a squeeze on the daily with this sideways action. Chartists should be alert for an upcoming move thanks for the charts
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