SP500 - At the wedge. Attack or defend? Focus on 2080-2090
In fact SP500 price has not been doing anything really during last 4 weeks... quiet before the storm?
Weekly:
- No change in Ichimoku setup, but Price is flirting with the wedge and Tenkan Sen.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, haDelta/SMA3 further down, may dip below zero line.There is serious negative divergence in haDelta/SMA3 compared to price.
- Supports are: 2050 / 2000 / 1950-1970. Below 1950 market could reverse to strategic bearish.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup losing its bullish bias, but price is still trading at Kijun Sen. Please note that daily Kumo is very thin below price, it is not such a strong possible support as before (it would be easy to break down in case).
- Heikin Ashi signal has been firm bearish for a few days, but price trades within 1-1,5 % range, which is incredibly thin. haDelta/SMA3 could not get far away from zero line either.
- Real question now if the wedge can hold or finally breaks? Most important short term supports are marked by Kijun Sen and the red horizontal lines below are: 2100 / 2090 / 2080.
A break and close below 2080-2090 could be a start of a bigger bearish move.
p.s.: According to my strategic view, I have been holding short SP500 and NAS100 positions for more than 5 weeks now (3 weeks on avg). Looking to increase only if the wedge and horizontal lvls break.
My global and longer term view is still the same: CPI will start to increase (in fact European CPI figures already show there is no deflationary risk at all), no need for ECB QE at all! European bonds will be under selling pressure, with Bund being bearish leader, EUR may be squeezed up as well. Jump in bond yields will finally trigger a selling in equities too. Commodities may start to reverse bullish later this year. So I am slowly positionning my portfolio towards this asset allocation:
- small-medium weight Bond shorts
- small weight Equity Indx shorts - only in US mkts, not in Europeans (there we may still see some buy squeeze if Greece will be out of the woods, and I think US is more expensive by all measures)
- Initial long positions in different commodities (Wheat, Soybeans, Sugar, Silver, Gold)
- Largest part in cash, diversified, but with some EUR overweight, not holding USD at all.
Weekly:
- No change in Ichimoku setup, but Price is flirting with the wedge and Tenkan Sen.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, haDelta/SMA3 further down, may dip below zero line.There is serious negative divergence in haDelta/SMA3 compared to price.
- Supports are: 2050 / 2000 / 1950-1970. Below 1950 market could reverse to strategic bearish.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup losing its bullish bias, but price is still trading at Kijun Sen. Please note that daily Kumo is very thin below price, it is not such a strong possible support as before (it would be easy to break down in case).
- Heikin Ashi signal has been firm bearish for a few days, but price trades within 1-1,5 % range, which is incredibly thin. haDelta/SMA3 could not get far away from zero line either.
- Real question now if the wedge can hold or finally breaks? Most important short term supports are marked by Kijun Sen and the red horizontal lines below are: 2100 / 2090 / 2080.
A break and close below 2080-2090 could be a start of a bigger bearish move.
p.s.: According to my strategic view, I have been holding short SP500 and NAS100 positions for more than 5 weeks now (3 weeks on avg). Looking to increase only if the wedge and horizontal lvls break.
My global and longer term view is still the same: CPI will start to increase (in fact European CPI figures already show there is no deflationary risk at all), no need for ECB QE at all! European bonds will be under selling pressure, with Bund being bearish leader, EUR may be squeezed up as well. Jump in bond yields will finally trigger a selling in equities too. Commodities may start to reverse bullish later this year. So I am slowly positionning my portfolio towards this asset allocation:
- small-medium weight Bond shorts
- small weight Equity Indx shorts - only in US mkts, not in Europeans (there we may still see some buy squeeze if Greece will be out of the woods, and I think US is more expensive by all measures)
- Initial long positions in different commodities (Wheat, Soybeans, Sugar, Silver, Gold)
- Largest part in cash, diversified, but with some EUR overweight, not holding USD at all.
