Not much change since my last post, except Heikin Ashi signals.
- Price is attacking lower bound of rising wedge again.
- Weekly Heikin Ashi candle turns bearish (still need to see today close) and haDelt/SMA3 further down, possibly dips below zero
- daily Heikin Ashi signal has been trying to turn bearish since 2125+ top print, with some hesitation in haDelta. This hesitation may end finally today, as haDelta/SMA3 may drop further below zero line. HA Oscillator has been bearish too.
In last few days the bearish bias was quite obvious, but the Price action was very annoying. It looked like some "interests" tried to keep price high for as long as possible. We don't know what is behind these buyings in this tight range, but price could not move higher... so I can also assume that we see a phase of smart dumping on late and leveraged retail buyers, and companies who still do their share buybacks.
We are very close to a breakdown point, and this mkt fell asleep! I mean there has been complete lack of volatility, which can suddenly change so much, that a 20 points move will look like a bid/offer spread. If we SP500 goes through 2080-2090, we can see a quick and agressive drop to 1980-2000. Still, that would be only -5 % move!
Two more things to note:
- Breath indicators like shares at 52 weeks high, or Advance/Decline ratio, Shares above 50 days MA or above 200 day MA, etc. all show there is serious problem within the complex.
- Leverage on margin accounts is at an extreme all time high! Net cash positions at all time low.
This time we have to ask the perma Bulls, not the Bears: "Are you ready for what possibly can happen here? Do you really think there is so much upside left of holding long equity positions from current levels, after one of the longest bull mkts in history?"
p.s.: My position is built already. I am Short on SP500 and NAS100. If I smell any blood on the floor, I will do more.
- Price is attacking lower bound of rising wedge again.
- Weekly Heikin Ashi candle turns bearish (still need to see today close) and haDelt/SMA3 further down, possibly dips below zero
- daily Heikin Ashi signal has been trying to turn bearish since 2125+ top print, with some hesitation in haDelta. This hesitation may end finally today, as haDelta/SMA3 may drop further below zero line. HA Oscillator has been bearish too.
In last few days the bearish bias was quite obvious, but the Price action was very annoying. It looked like some "interests" tried to keep price high for as long as possible. We don't know what is behind these buyings in this tight range, but price could not move higher... so I can also assume that we see a phase of smart dumping on late and leveraged retail buyers, and companies who still do their share buybacks.
We are very close to a breakdown point, and this mkt fell asleep! I mean there has been complete lack of volatility, which can suddenly change so much, that a 20 points move will look like a bid/offer spread. If we SP500 goes through 2080-2090, we can see a quick and agressive drop to 1980-2000. Still, that would be only -5 % move!
Two more things to note:
- Breath indicators like shares at 52 weeks high, or Advance/Decline ratio, Shares above 50 days MA or above 200 day MA, etc. all show there is serious problem within the complex.
- Leverage on margin accounts is at an extreme all time high! Net cash positions at all time low.
This time we have to ask the perma Bulls, not the Bears: "Are you ready for what possibly can happen here? Do you really think there is so much upside left of holding long equity positions from current levels, after one of the longest bull mkts in history?"
p.s.: My position is built already. I am Short on SP500 and NAS100. If I smell any blood on the floor, I will do more.
