- FED hikes in June and the market doesn't like it and sells off very fast
- FED doesn't hike in June and the market doesn't like it and sells off very fast
- UK citizens votes to leave the EU, which would create fear of the EU imploding poltically
- New / unresolved issues with Greece paying back their debt emerge
- Crude oil starts to crash towards 30 "US Dollar" again
- The "Apple" stock breaks the 50 month uptrend which would crash the Nasdaq
- China doesn't stay above recent lows in reaction to other stock markets falling and then continues to crash even lower
Short entry: Between 2070-2080
Stop loss: 2125
* The S&P 500 was falling so fast last week that when I started drawing the chart it had just fallen from 2095 and when I ready to publish the chart it was already down to 2085 points.
Path of least resistance is to leave the uptrend channel which started in February 2016. More change in price is needed to stay in the uptrend, meaning if the UK votes to remain in the EU a very fast and large sustained move higher has to follow to render my bearish outlook for the next weeks invalid:
Chart update: 14 days later after posting my outlook the worst case, the Brexit, became sadly true. Based on false hope the market managed to run my original stop loss recommendation at 2125 points though (despite picking a very wide SL this time) with a peak at 2127.6 before it crashed hard Judas swing style once poll results came in.
Because I am bearish since two weeks I'm already looking for a positive trend change, while the world just starts to get bearish after Brexit, with the Deutsche Bank getting hammered down today to a new all time low, while the British Pound which already made 30 year lows on Friday fell to new lows today (Monday). So far it only seems that the S&P 500 is oversold on a short time-frame, but I don't see a bullish trend change - yet.
Before spot opens this Monday in less than two hours the S&P 500 has fallen to 2012 points so far and I expect a test of 2000 points coming up soon. An area where some expect a trend change. Earliest trend change area I see is around 1950-1940 points.