ChartArt
Short

S&P 500: Brexit After-Shock July Wave (During Black-Out Period)

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
543 5 11
5 months ago
The S&P 500             and Apple             and USOIL             started to decline again. And we are entering earnings period, which also means that some companies are entering a blackout period where they cannot buy back stock . The Brexit started a furious short covering squeeze higher, but ran out of steam on July 4h in Europe with further signs of weakness on July 5th in the US. Best case for bulls the market only dives lower to around 2055 points. But I see more downside risk down to my main short target below.

Short target: "2002" points
Stop loss: "2122" points
2nd short target: "1940" points
3rd short target: "1810"-"1860" points (from my worst case scenario, see link below)

"Buybacks: Why Brexit came at a bad time for banks"
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/buybacks-why-brexit-came-at-a-bad-time-for-banks.html

Worst case scenario:
Worse case scenario: FED + Brexit + Grexit + Apple + China crash
5 months ago
Comment: UPDATE, Thursday, July 7, 2016

So far the bears are still in control. The S&P 500 on Thursday went up to 21091, but hit resistance there and then fell back to 2097 right now at 11:50am ET time.

snapshot


But I start to get concerned that I was wrong. The majority of Tradingview user charts was bearish yesterday. And usually when I get a lot of upvotes very quick after posting a new chart my trading idea mostly fails to work out. The bounce on Wednesday took place from the daily 50 EMA and the bounce was so strong that many of my indicators which were bearish started to move back in the bull zone. Fundamentals are also getting better. ISM PMI Non-Manufacturing is going up, which is bullish. And US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims has fallen 16k. Which means economic data supports growth in the US.

So the chance that bulls win is starting to increase, while the chance that bears win is starting to decrease.
5 months ago
Comment: The S&P 500 intra-day high so far was at 2109 and not at 21091 off course :)
julia17
5 months ago
i have the same target, hope, it will play.
+1 Reply
Fitzndahyouwz
5 months ago
At the moment I have it going, at most, 2003.58ish... Doubt ppt will let it go that far down.
Reply
Qiuness
5 months ago
crazy SP.. They are manipulating the market!
Reply
ChartArt Qiuness
5 months ago
They aren't manipulating. I had seen this upside risk coming in my own very fast calculation even before I posted the chart on Wednesday and then with more confirmation of the incoming upside risk updated my chart with a comment on Thursday (one day before today's larger move higher)..

I just thought the Brexit sentiment which was in my view still out there and just waiting to drag the market down again would be stronger than my own not seen here indicator calculation (which was a bit messed up due to the high volatility), but I was wrong about that. Emotion lost. Math won.
Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
5 months ago
Here is what I wrote Thursday before today's rise of the S&P 500:

"The majority of Tradingview user charts was bearish yesterday. And usually when I get a lot of upvotes very quick after posting a new chart my trading idea mostly fails to work out. "

Now I have one more proof that my observation of the Tradingview behavior is correct.
Reply
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