Does it make sense? Fundamental guys would obviously tell you immediately YES, as the German economic numbers have really started to deteriorate, while the macro picture looks a bit better in the USA.
But what if I ask if this pricing is correct technically? This spread shows the performance of SP500 index over the German DAX (GER30). So the higher it goes, the better the SP500 is behaving compared to the German index. Now technically it has reached a multi year key level. Regardless the power of "global" risk off, or the wave of the correction, it seems DAX is more hated now. This spread is almost as wide as in 2011, when we the Euro zone got to the brink of a total collapse, you remember the PIIGS story right? So should this spread widen a lot more from here? I mean what has really driven SP500 up here in last 6 years? C'mon, we all know the correct answer. The hope for always more or endless monetary stimulus from the FED. That is diminishing now, while the ECB has just started to ease further. OK, drog addict investors are somehow really disappointed with this type of QE in Europe. They expected a large and full scaled one. That's why they started to offload their frontrunning trades on periferia bonds in last days, and I think that is the reason behind the relative weakness of the DAX.
But the facts (at least what we know now) are facts: ECB Is loose, FED is hmmm, minimum looks like turning to neutral. So if money flow and monetary basis matter, then this spread will have to start shrinking at some point. Also if you think of fundamentals in reflexive way: if Europe and chine will be fckd, do you think US will be able to keep recent macro gains, or if US economy is so strong, and global situation is not that bad, don't you think Europe will catch up?
Worth to watch. So far this chart is bullish, but there's already some megative MACD divergence developing. Looking to trade the pull back at some point, and maybe later even the reversal.
But what if I ask if this pricing is correct technically? This spread shows the performance of SP500 index over the German DAX (GER30). So the higher it goes, the better the SP500 is behaving compared to the German index. Now technically it has reached a multi year key level. Regardless the power of "global" risk off, or the wave of the correction, it seems DAX is more hated now. This spread is almost as wide as in 2011, when we the Euro zone got to the brink of a total collapse, you remember the PIIGS story right? So should this spread widen a lot more from here? I mean what has really driven SP500 up here in last 6 years? C'mon, we all know the correct answer. The hope for always more or endless monetary stimulus from the FED. That is diminishing now, while the ECB has just started to ease further. OK, drog addict investors are somehow really disappointed with this type of QE in Europe. They expected a large and full scaled one. That's why they started to offload their frontrunning trades on periferia bonds in last days, and I think that is the reason behind the relative weakness of the DAX.
But the facts (at least what we know now) are facts: ECB Is loose, FED is hmmm, minimum looks like turning to neutral. So if money flow and monetary basis matter, then this spread will have to start shrinking at some point. Also if you think of fundamentals in reflexive way: if Europe and chine will be fckd, do you think US will be able to keep recent macro gains, or if US economy is so strong, and global situation is not that bad, don't you think Europe will catch up?
Worth to watch. So far this chart is bullish, but there's already some megative MACD divergence developing. Looking to trade the pull back at some point, and maybe later even the reversal.
