You see, everything is possible on financil mkts. I think a lot of people already opened shortsat 1900. Maybe their stops will drive it up to 1950? This price action we've seen in last two weeks is a perfect exampleto show no one really knows where Prices go in short term. You can make bets and set up probabilities. Then you may or may not enter a trade, but when you are in, the only thing you can control is how much you loose. All the rest is bla-bla.
So where are we now and what is good risk-reward?
Daily: I assumed it was oversold but to be honest the power of correction surprised me too. In fact I don't really understand why SP500 is so much stronger in recovery against for example the German DAX. (please see post below), but both turned counter trend bullish. With today candle we have a Kijun Sen retest, and possibly a retest to one of the previous major bullish trend lines. Will the move stop here? No one knows! It can stop here, dip back a bit and move up again, or it can reverse down to bearish. Anything has a chance, but if I look at MACD and Slow Stoch I think even if it dips a bit, buyers will hold on for some more time.
Honestly the first possible sell zone is 1950+, but ONLY if you see some sell signals there.
The good short setup is when: MACD and Slow Stoch are high and crossing down, and when at the time Price is above Kijun Sen, but Kijun caught up and Price makes a bearish cross below.
The long term formation starts to look like a huge bearish megaphone. It will be a sell at some point, the question is when?
4 Hrs: Bullish counter trend is about to start here. Certanly we'll see some pull backs, but future Kumo became thick, and really supports the Bulls now. Chikou has been over Price candles. First resistances are: 1925 and 1945. Probably from 1945 we'd see some pull back, but until Price is above the Kumo, it won't be bearish.
1 Hr: This time frame showed in time when to get out of shorts. The break above 1860-70 started the counter trend, which is still developing. We will see 10-15 points pull backs, but don't feel you missed the big short, as every selling attempt is only a top hunting until Price is above the Kumo and Kijun Sen.
So where are we now and what is good risk-reward?
Daily: I assumed it was oversold but to be honest the power of correction surprised me too. In fact I don't really understand why SP500 is so much stronger in recovery against for example the German DAX. (please see post below), but both turned counter trend bullish. With today candle we have a Kijun Sen retest, and possibly a retest to one of the previous major bullish trend lines. Will the move stop here? No one knows! It can stop here, dip back a bit and move up again, or it can reverse down to bearish. Anything has a chance, but if I look at MACD and Slow Stoch I think even if it dips a bit, buyers will hold on for some more time.
Honestly the first possible sell zone is 1950+, but ONLY if you see some sell signals there.
The good short setup is when: MACD and Slow Stoch are high and crossing down, and when at the time Price is above Kijun Sen, but Kijun caught up and Price makes a bearish cross below.
The long term formation starts to look like a huge bearish megaphone. It will be a sell at some point, the question is when?
4 Hrs: Bullish counter trend is about to start here. Certanly we'll see some pull backs, but future Kumo became thick, and really supports the Bulls now. Chikou has been over Price candles. First resistances are: 1925 and 1945. Probably from 1945 we'd see some pull back, but until Price is above the Kumo, it won't be bearish.
1 Hr: This time frame showed in time when to get out of shorts. The break above 1860-70 started the counter trend, which is still developing. We will see 10-15 points pull backs, but don't feel you missed the big short, as every selling attempt is only a top hunting until Price is above the Kumo and Kijun Sen.
