Correction starts, but the question is not this in the long run
OK, let's get a quick update on tech setup changes:
Daily:
- bearish wedge is breaking on lower side. This also means a possible break below Tenkan Sen
- Heikin Ashi sell signal with smoothed haDelta also below zero -> finally the negative divergence between price and haDelta had its consequence.
- 2085-2087 is important, as below that level selling will accelerate.
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish with supports ard 2045-50 and 2000+
4H:
- As I warned you on Twitter yesterday, there was no higher high and momentum lost yesterday.
- Ichimoku setup turns neutral, supports being attacked! Trendline Kumo and 100 WMA are the key around 2082-2088.
- Heikin Ashi bearish momentum gains power
But the big question and the big deal is not wether we see a correction to 2000 or 2045. That is nothing else but a petting :-)
Look at what's happening all around the world and think for a moment!
- Extremely strong NFP -> FED has no choice now, they hike or ruin their credibility
- USD is getting stronger and stronger against all major FX and more importantly: AGAINST EM CCYs!!!!
- Emerging Markets will be fckd in a big way! Strong USD means two things for them:
1. Commodity prices will likely drop further = less income
2. Their USD debt is going more insolvent, and repayment amounts soar even more = more obligations
Dear friends. I think the huge shtstorm is coming soon from EM world.
EM ETFs have further selling pressure already.
- Look at the rates! Not just US bonds! Oh no no. Look at Europeans! Look at German Bund, which sold off even more than US10Y T-Note today!
Do you remember early this year what happened when leveraged Bund players started to unwind huge positions?
ECB will be in trouble soon, they will have to intervene.
Anyway, increasing bond yields mean increasing Discount Factor!!! Hey helloooo, I know it was long time ago, but there was once a model called CAPM!!! -> higher yields -> higher alternative costs -> lower share prices
+ Strong USD -> less income and lower earnings for SP500 companies, especially from EM world. Who the fck will buy more Apple I don't know hahahaha
I don't say Mr. Market can not be more idiot and that equities won't go higher from here, but those who buy shares for long term now, I think will be challanged soon.
p.s.: Bonus - I will post SP500 monthly with some comments during w/e to show you the possible timing of start of bear mkt.
Daily:
- bearish wedge is breaking on lower side. This also means a possible break below Tenkan Sen
- Heikin Ashi sell signal with smoothed haDelta also below zero -> finally the negative divergence between price and haDelta had its consequence.
- 2085-2087 is important, as below that level selling will accelerate.
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish with supports ard 2045-50 and 2000+
4H:
- As I warned you on Twitter yesterday, there was no higher high and momentum lost yesterday.
- Ichimoku setup turns neutral, supports being attacked! Trendline Kumo and 100 WMA are the key around 2082-2088.
- Heikin Ashi bearish momentum gains power
But the big question and the big deal is not wether we see a correction to 2000 or 2045. That is nothing else but a petting :-)
Look at what's happening all around the world and think for a moment!
- Extremely strong NFP -> FED has no choice now, they hike or ruin their credibility
- USD is getting stronger and stronger against all major FX and more importantly: AGAINST EM CCYs!!!!
- Emerging Markets will be fckd in a big way! Strong USD means two things for them:
1. Commodity prices will likely drop further = less income
2. Their USD debt is going more insolvent, and repayment amounts soar even more = more obligations
Dear friends. I think the huge shtstorm is coming soon from EM world.
EM ETFs have further selling pressure already.
- Look at the rates! Not just US bonds! Oh no no. Look at Europeans! Look at German Bund, which sold off even more than US10Y T-Note today!
Do you remember early this year what happened when leveraged Bund players started to unwind huge positions?
ECB will be in trouble soon, they will have to intervene.
Anyway, increasing bond yields mean increasing Discount Factor!!! Hey helloooo, I know it was long time ago, but there was once a model called CAPM!!! -> higher yields -> higher alternative costs -> lower share prices
+ Strong USD -> less income and lower earnings for SP500 companies, especially from EM world. Who the fck will buy more Apple I don't know hahahaha
I don't say Mr. Market can not be more idiot and that equities won't go higher from here, but those who buy shares for long term now, I think will be challanged soon.
p.s.: Bonus - I will post SP500 monthly with some comments during w/e to show you the possible timing of start of bear mkt.
