IvanLabrie
Long

SPX: You should buy a core long term position here

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
a month ago
It's time to place SPY/SPX longs here, you don't really need a stop loss if it's part of your investment portfolio. You could establish a hedge by buying IBB             puts at $255, Dec 16 expiration, but it might not be needed after the smoke clears out.
Risk is basically a new daily low, but you could go with a wider stop as well, or none at all and simply size it as a % of your account that fits your risk profile. If going with an investment type position, you would use part of your cash, for a non-leveraged SPY             long position, I'd reccomend 10% at least, and you could buy puts at the money in SPY             , or IBB             , which you can sell for a minor loss once we're confident the bottom's in.
Or, you can spend half the cash on SDS             longs as well, which would hedge the position with half the cash use.

The level we tested here, the speed line support, the VIX             retracement BIG$ support, and the sheer panic makes this a possible candidate for a long term bottom in SPX             , so don't miss the opportunity. Or, you can believe the boys screaming wolf again...

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.
a month ago
Comment: Up for the day, closing above 2100 will be extremely promising here.
a month ago
Comment: Despite some drawdown on the entry, we're well in the money and with good odds of seeing a strong advance here.
a month ago
Comment: Waiting for election results. A Trump victory could be better for the market in the long run. We'll wait to confirm a new buy entry, the investment opportunity will be very good. For now we wait. The level we hit is already interesting, but we need to wait for some specific signals tomorrow, or in the next few days.

snapshot
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
sushil6002
a month ago
on which behalf , u r saying to go long ....having any comment on it....
pretty confused..
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP sushil6002
a month ago
It's a technical idea, you wouldn't understand unless you knew my mentor's proprietary strategy's inner workings.
Suffice to say that sentiment supports this trade, and possibly fundamentals as well.
Reply
sushil6002 IvanLabrie
a month ago
okhy so fundamentaly let me know ,wht should be watch.......
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP sushil6002
a month ago
The move to the downside was probably caused by hysteria about the elections, and it has now tested a long term support level, that options activity helps us identify. If this level holds, we will see a rally from here.
I hope that clarifies it a bit. You can check out Tim West's publication explaining the VIX signals I talk about.
Reply
Would be nice if you actually gave a reason for buying here, instead of citing your "mentor's proprietary strategy's inner workings." Whatever that means. And no stop loss is not the best recommendation (hedged or not).
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP MichaelRudelich
a month ago
Hi, well, I don't see other people having to explain so much.
If you don't know the specifics of the trading strategy I use, my reasoning won't be of much help for you.
About fundamentals, and sentiment, that I can comment about. We have an extraordinary amount of agreement between bears and many 'contrarian indicators' have flashed (I don't want to name names, it's simply bad to ridicule people who got it wrong, specially since we can be the fool many times too).

Anyway, the market retested a strong level, that was the peak of the buying spree that originated from the Brexiy selloff, this buying spree came with smart money front running their own buying, by selling calls, thus sending VIX down sharply. After the spike in VIX here, we got a signal that we could be seeing a bottom, and I think it's fair to say this is it.

If you trade in the longer term, or if you manage an investment portfolio, I believe you wouldn't question my reccomendation of not using stops. If you're buying SPY, as part of your 'market exposure', while also trading individual stocks, options, etc., it's fairly normal to not use a stop. In fact, I never use one in my own trading, we simply size the trades based on reaching the invalidation level we determine before taking the trade.

If people want advice on the reccomended size, or stop loss location, or how to hedge the position, they can pm me naturally. I also commented about it briefly in the description so I'd assume that's enough.
10% account, no leverage, long SPY, isn't such a big deal, specially here.

Hope that clarifies things for you.
Thanks for stopping by, cheers!
Reply
ropaar
a month ago
Thanks for your chart. Your suggested long term SPY position. What is your time frame for long term if I am to buy call options on spy? Thanks IvanLabrie.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP ropaar
a month ago
Hi, you're welcome. I'm long with 20% of my cash.

You can buy out of the money calls, or short cash secured puts for 1 year without much problem.

The best option is owning $SPY in my opinion, you get the dividends, and can treat it as part of your portfolio, and rebalance it periodically, or improve cost basis if viable, etc.

I'd rather sell options, to hedge during pullbacks, than buy options.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a month ago
The target is 249 for SPY by the way, based on the 2 month timeframe signal from my other publications.
Reply
ropaar IvanLabrie
a month ago
Awesome reply, thanks. Seriously I think your points make a lot of sense.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP ropaar
a month ago
Glad to be of help.
There're a few prime picks as well, like ABMD, TWTR, quite a few I posted recently, you can check those out.
There's been a pattern for a long time, and that is that shorting hasn't been a very profitable, or easy line of business in equities, but trading with covered calls has been great, so I'd favor that when applicable.
Cheers!
Reply
ropaar IvanLabrie
a month ago
Will definitely check that. One last question for now if I may. You track GDX and GLD?
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP ropaar
a month ago
Yes, I do, I mostly trade in the daily and weekly timeframe, for a couple days, to a couple weeks if viable (rarely viable lately).

My instinct would say that we'll see a decline in gold and silver, since they rallied as a risk off play, but I don't feel 100% comfortable with shorting them (unless you're not long SPY or only trade commodities, otherwise, it's redundant as a risk on play).
Reply
ropaar ropaar
a month ago
Great, thanks again.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out