AndyM
Short

Loads of patience required, but 1730 target is unchanged.

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
1567 5 32
I'm going to be stubborn on this case until we see the whole set of waves complete. I do believe we are running a descending expanded leading diagonal, which started at the top of May 2015 and is still being traced out. We are about to complete wave 4 which is a double zigzag, with a minor subwave 5 missing.

I don't expect new tops in SPX             but I expect us to approach the top once again (possibly hitting 2100..2010 area) in the next few days. Then we need to see a sizeable sell-off in w5, which I expect to be bigger than wave 3 in August. The reason for this is the % of bears, which is now the lowest since Feb (opposite to August situation where we started the decline with a large number of shorts in place already).

Essentially, wave 4 served to convinced everyone once again that the stocks were going to advance forever. This is exactly what bears need, and their time is coming again. First, bears will start going short, then those who have been long will start to close longs, then the same earlier longs will start to go short. Enough fuel to stage a massive decline. We gonna need some fireworks here.

1730 is the final target (confluece of 1.382 extension of w4 and hitting the major trendline at the same level). I expect the decline to unfold quite fast, and we should be done by mid Dec. Then then Fed will announce more Q.E. instead of rate hike and we are off to a new bull party.

Patience is Gold             . I like those inline tickers :))
Farbenspiel
a year ago
Very nice and well explained.
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Farbenspiel
a year ago
By they way party looks like starting today.
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marjan PRO
a year ago
Veyr nice and really easx explained...Keep this way, indeed .
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Thanks for putting together such chart.... which indicator yo use for "The reason for this is the % of bears, which is now the lowest since Feb "? or tool? Thanks
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AndyM PRO josepaiva
a year ago
There are special services which measure market sentiment based on various indicators, I am not subscribed to any of these, but in this specific case I just stumbled upon this article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-05/super-stock-surge-batters-bears-8-month-lows
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