SP500 Monthly Analysis

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
The SP500             has a remarkable run since 2009, not least due to all that quantitative easing.

Calls for an end to QE and consequently rising interest rates have been growing ever since the latter part of 2014. Since Jan 2015, the SP500             has been ranging in a fairly narrow range and to be honest, it's getting a bit boring.

D+ has just this month crossed below 20 and ADX is pretty much flat, albeit at a nice high level above 40. A cross below 40 would kind of suck while both D+ and D- are below 20, because it suggests more ranging. I'm hoping (should never do that, I know) for a break of either 2125 or 1967 because that would mean the SP500             might start trending again.

If 1967 breaks, I'll target 1735 as the next strong support level . To the upside...who knows, just buy if it continues going up through 2125 and use your preferred trailing stop. Don't question why it's going up either, that cost a lot of people a lot of money and missed opportunities since 2009. Just buy because don't question fundamental logic, that's why! ;)
Good analysis, but they are getting tighter with profanity here. Could you change the last sentence?
+2 Reply
TradeApe QuantitativeExhaustion
Ups, sorry...had a Guinness and just got back from the pup ;)

My thinking is that if the Fed somehow makes it seem as if the interest rate hike gets delayed even further, that would be a nice catalyst for the SP500 to edge even higher.

If they surprise everyone (announce it earlier or hike it more than expected) we might get a very nice spike down very quickly. Personally, I don't think they're as badass as the SNB, so not really expecting taht scenario.

Then again I tend to (almost) ignore fundamentals when taking trades anyway.
+3 Reply
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