Technicals
Bulls technically in control of daily/weekly charts however, bears have a lot of resistance here we traded for months between 3026 and 2900. The most likely scenario is that we go sideways for a bit and eventually fall. I can’t say for certain if we are going up or down until I see a bull break above 2970 probably would want to see an impulsive break above 3026 before I even consider opening a long positions but that would probably put the market into overbought conditions potentially leading to a false breakout unless we traded sideways or down first. A bear break after is my more likely scenario but remember as traders the key is ultimate flexibility we don’t care, the bears have made a low, lower high next we need a lower low below 2780 which would break the neckline. I have a open short from last week I’m down a bit I will be closing the position if we break above 3026 I will be adding upon bears taking weekly down trend and neckline break. Sorry about the lack of clarity this week I need to see more evidence to sway me either way but I will update when clarity comes.
Things to watch with news
On Friday the worst jobs report in history was enough to push the Dow up 450 points so we’ve known economic news doesn’t matter this is stock market positive. Actually the real unemployment rate taking the u6 plus actual labor force is much higher than 30% but your not supposed to know that. Trade talks with China are back this is also stock market positive expect what we saw in 2019, trade talks going great, (Trump tweets) Dow up 300 points. Fed buying everything stock market positive. Watch 10 year treasury rates if they go up expect stocks to follow. Oil looks like it’s getting hit this week technically I haven’t charted it out but it looks like we’re right on down trend resistance so oil dropping is stock market negative. The economy reopening is what this bear market rally is going on but if we start to see a big rise in coronavirus cases and potentially close economy back down it’s gonna be March 2.0. This seems like a classic bear market rally to me is it possible the fed could get it propped up to record highs, yes in this totally fake environment.
Back to trade, Obviously the whole trade deal we had was a complete joke. Remember how all the manufacturing was supposed to come back to America which is why we have biggest trade deficits and manufacturing ever. The real way the jobs back is not negotiating a trade deal, we need to cut regulations and taxes massively. The thing is consumers want cheap prices and America used to manufacture everything for even cheaper back when we had small government and it was extremely easy to do business. People often bring up low labor cost as the reason that goods are made overseas but remember government costs more than labor between regulations and high taxes, not to mention there used cheap labor overseas and we still made it cheaper here because we had small government and companies invested in technology to make workers more productive now because of low interest rates companies invest in stock buybacks.
Bulls technically in control of daily/weekly charts however, bears have a lot of resistance here we traded for months between 3026 and 2900. The most likely scenario is that we go sideways for a bit and eventually fall. I can’t say for certain if we are going up or down until I see a bull break above 2970 probably would want to see an impulsive break above 3026 before I even consider opening a long positions but that would probably put the market into overbought conditions potentially leading to a false breakout unless we traded sideways or down first. A bear break after is my more likely scenario but remember as traders the key is ultimate flexibility we don’t care, the bears have made a low, lower high next we need a lower low below 2780 which would break the neckline. I have a open short from last week I’m down a bit I will be closing the position if we break above 3026 I will be adding upon bears taking weekly down trend and neckline break. Sorry about the lack of clarity this week I need to see more evidence to sway me either way but I will update when clarity comes.
Things to watch with news
On Friday the worst jobs report in history was enough to push the Dow up 450 points so we’ve known economic news doesn’t matter this is stock market positive. Actually the real unemployment rate taking the u6 plus actual labor force is much higher than 30% but your not supposed to know that. Trade talks with China are back this is also stock market positive expect what we saw in 2019, trade talks going great, (Trump tweets) Dow up 300 points. Fed buying everything stock market positive. Watch 10 year treasury rates if they go up expect stocks to follow. Oil looks like it’s getting hit this week technically I haven’t charted it out but it looks like we’re right on down trend resistance so oil dropping is stock market negative. The economy reopening is what this bear market rally is going on but if we start to see a big rise in coronavirus cases and potentially close economy back down it’s gonna be March 2.0. This seems like a classic bear market rally to me is it possible the fed could get it propped up to record highs, yes in this totally fake environment.
Back to trade, Obviously the whole trade deal we had was a complete joke. Remember how all the manufacturing was supposed to come back to America which is why we have biggest trade deficits and manufacturing ever. The real way the jobs back is not negotiating a trade deal, we need to cut regulations and taxes massively. The thing is consumers want cheap prices and America used to manufacture everything for even cheaper back when we had small government and it was extremely easy to do business. People often bring up low labor cost as the reason that goods are made overseas but remember government costs more than labor between regulations and high taxes, not to mention there used cheap labor overseas and we still made it cheaper here because we had small government and companies invested in technology to make workers more productive now because of low interest rates companies invest in stock buybacks.
Comment:
Almost forgot watch Nasdaq we cannot see another March without tech stocks sell offs I will be posting later on those, tech stocks are holding stocks up here
Comment:
Could some sideways swings