SPY TO 293 RANGE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS OF TRADING BEFORE DOWN LEG
Current theory is that we are in the middle of a large ABC zigzag elliot formation heading down further in upcoming weeks.
Was able to draw a 5 wave correction pattern within wave B a few days ago which has been playing out nicely. Still holding long positions for a few more days. If we break up above the green bull trend line then we will hit the 293 target rather quickly. If not, this will need to be reassessed. Where we are is similar to 4/1 where we broke the bull trend then bounced hard off of the .236 fib line.
Also noted a lot of nice reactions on a fib retracement using the recent high (287) and the low from 4/3, shown in opaque white. This combined with the large retracement formed from the 3/23 low/the feb all time high has been providing some nice trading confidence for short term long and short positions as this elliot formation plays out.
When we reach the top of B in the timeframe predicted then I will break the C wave into sub-waves for short and long entry and exit points, assuming we are in for a large leg down in upcoming months.
If things are hard to see I will provide some zoomed in snapshots in comments below.
Was able to draw a 5 wave correction pattern within wave B a few days ago which has been playing out nicely. Still holding long positions for a few more days. If we break up above the green bull trend line then we will hit the 293 target rather quickly. If not, this will need to be reassessed. Where we are is similar to 4/1 where we broke the bull trend then bounced hard off of the .236 fib line.
Also noted a lot of nice reactions on a fib retracement using the recent high (287) and the low from 4/3, shown in opaque white. This combined with the large retracement formed from the 3/23 low/the feb all time high has been providing some nice trading confidence for short term long and short positions as this elliot formation plays out.
When we reach the top of B in the timeframe predicted then I will break the C wave into sub-waves for short and long entry and exit points, assuming we are in for a large leg down in upcoming months.
If things are hard to see I will provide some zoomed in snapshots in comments below.
Comment:
Playing out nicely. This week could get bumpy though.
Comment:
We hit target. Time to re-evaluate from here to see if we will begin a downward trend moving forward. Calls paid off nicely since 2720.
Comment:
BIg pullback after nearly hitting the 293 target. We haven't seen red like this in a while, though it is still nothing like the initial dump. A dump like we had in Feb/March is unlikely at this point, since the panic has already passed.
After a few more days of confirmation I will be opening some longterm puts to ride this down. Subject to how the first sub-wave plays out within the C wave that we may finally have started as of today. I could even wait until a confirmed wave 1 has been completed so I can trace out the potential price targets for wave two retrace up, then wave three. Won't know if wave C will 1 even come to fruition, or 2 form a 3 or 5 subwave pattern for a few more days/weeks. Either way, assuming it forms, wave three should be a very profitable wave to trade with confidence.
After a few more days of confirmation I will be opening some longterm puts to ride this down. Subject to how the first sub-wave plays out within the C wave that we may finally have started as of today. I could even wait until a confirmed wave 1 has been completed so I can trace out the potential price targets for wave two retrace up, then wave three. Won't know if wave C will 1 even come to fruition, or 2 form a 3 or 5 subwave pattern for a few more days/weeks. Either way, assuming it forms, wave three should be a very profitable wave to trade with confidence.
