Hey guys. Today we are dealing with the question of how I assess the market over a long period of time.
Basically, I'm very bullish for the next few years. This analysis is based on the elliott wave calculation and has cost a lot of time. The stock market is a game of probabilities. And here you can see my primary scenario for one of the most important US indices.
My thesis is that we are in the middle of the longest bull market. This analysis ignores any fundamental data. In my opinion, these are not important for this either. I don't care when the Fed speaks. I don't care how corona develops. I don't care how much money is printed. All of these factors are not taken into account! Just elliott waves and the natural market cycle;)
Overall, we are in a strong upward movement, and based on my calculations, I forecast a target area of around 7000. Only then I see possible a “crash”.
I did not include a time calculation in this analysis. But I'm talking about several years here :)
I have also prepared my short-term scenario:
There we are in a subordinate wave 3 with a high probability. My mid term target is around 4668 - 4700. With a lower probability, this could still be wave 2, so that a further correction in the 3900 range is possible. But this scenario is only to be considered secondary. Currently the target 4238 has to be overcome. After that, the probability increases that we will go up to 4600-4700 (you can see my specific numbers in the chart).
If you have any questions, let me know. And for everyone who thinks that this is total nonsense: deal with the elliott waves and the technical analysis. Then you will be able to understand it too;)
Basically, I'm very bullish for the next few years. This analysis is based on the elliott wave calculation and has cost a lot of time. The stock market is a game of probabilities. And here you can see my primary scenario for one of the most important US indices.
My thesis is that we are in the middle of the longest bull market. This analysis ignores any fundamental data. In my opinion, these are not important for this either. I don't care when the Fed speaks. I don't care how corona develops. I don't care how much money is printed. All of these factors are not taken into account! Just elliott waves and the natural market cycle;)
Overall, we are in a strong upward movement, and based on my calculations, I forecast a target area of around 7000. Only then I see possible a “crash”.
I did not include a time calculation in this analysis. But I'm talking about several years here :)
I have also prepared my short-term scenario:
There we are in a subordinate wave 3 with a high probability. My mid term target is around 4668 - 4700. With a lower probability, this could still be wave 2, so that a further correction in the 3900 range is possible. But this scenario is only to be considered secondary. Currently the target 4238 has to be overcome. After that, the probability increases that we will go up to 4600-4700 (you can see my specific numbers in the chart).
If you have any questions, let me know. And for everyone who thinks that this is total nonsense: deal with the elliott waves and the technical analysis. Then you will be able to understand it too;)
