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Happy Sunday everyone! I hope that you had a great week, I sure know that I did. This afternoon I had a meeting with Leah Wald to teach her some poker strategy leading up to the Unconfiscatable Conference. For those who do not know it is a Bitcoin Conference that is being put on by Tone Vays.
It is Jan 24th - 26th and there will be a 0.1 BTC poker tourney as part of the festivities. Not to mention that this is the very first time that Tyler Jenks is going to be revealing his full Hyperwave strategy! There is still a little room left and I would highly recommend signing up. If you do then shoot me a message and I will buy you a beer on one of the nights.
For anyone wondering Leah is absolutely as lovely / brilliant in person as she is on Tone and Tyler’s podcasts. At 18 years of age she worked at the World Bank under the ministry of resources. She has been a founding partner of multiple businesses since then including a NPO 'Veterati' which helps unemployed Veterans find jobs.
These are the types of people that make this ecosystem so special! Have you ever met so many brilliant, unique, interesting, hard working, and passionate individuals as you have in Bitcoin?!
The challenge has been fairly uneventful over the weekend. I did get stopped out of my ETH long and after a sting of losses like I have experienced over the last couple weeks it is very easy to press or try to force it.
This is the last thing that should be done. The weekly made a short entry very appealing, however the market is still in backwardation and that is enough for me to pass up on a short.
This next week should be very excited for the S&P 500 as well as USDTRY . I just need one of those positions to go in my favor in order to get back into the green for this challenge.
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + M MA (30%) + Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
*1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA.
*1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain.
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + M MA (30%) + cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
*1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656.
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44%
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.289 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656
*1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < L MA represents oversold asset in bull market.
Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC )
Unrealized PnL: -0.0229 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC
Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close.
*1/10/19 Scale in due to support from L MA
*1/13/19 STOPPED OUT
Exposure: 12.68 ETH (0.4386 BTC )
Projected Risk: 0.021 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0049 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0003 BTC
PnL: -0.0231 BTC
Notes: Am strongly prefering to use stops. It allows me to effectively control my risk. When I am not sure about the risk I am assuming then I feel very uncomfortable / anxious.
To marry stop losses with Consensio I prefer starting out very small and using a wider than normal stop. Give the position plenty of room to develop and do not wait for stop to trigger if Consensio gets you out earlier. Then look to aggressively add when the position moves in our favor.
*1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD . Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation.
USDHUF: 18 year symmetrical triangle.
USDJPY: (leaning ) Consensio is on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely.
XRPUSD: In a super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1
USDCAD: Approaching 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000.
BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily . Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%.
ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly appears to be getting rejected by TL + SAR . Potential for englufing. Daily just broke SAR but is finding support from L MA.
ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry.
LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily cloud saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a not trade zone can work very well. Now it appears to be finding support from the TL and trying to create another higher low.
XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below.
XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a cross.
EURUSD: (leaning ) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one.
USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.