S&P500 Repeating early September. Can it avoid the fall?

The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding since yesterday after the 7 day fall followng the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it rebounded near the bottom of the October Channel Up, so far it remains below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).

Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. We are now slightly past the 4H Death Cross. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.

In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.



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