Asaadx2

S&P correction done? or nearly done? - the bearish case

FOREXCOM:SPXUSD   US SP 500 CFD
This is the bearish case for S&P500 . It counts a double zigzag WXY from the bottom on 22nd March.

Going through the subwaves on lower timeframes it is possible to count wave c of the second zigzag as complete like this:
Note how price hit the purple median line and reacted to it, and how it has also broken the blue pitchfork lower parallel and then hit the median line of the red pitchfork

It is possible however that we are still in wave 4 (blue). The price action off the recent high can still be counted as a double combo WXY for wave 4, and the time spent is acceptable compared to wave 2. If this is the case price would need another small rally to complete wave 5 before it declines sharply.

A break of support at the height of wave 1 at 2862 would indicate that the first scenario is in effect, while a break of resistance at 2962 would indicate that the second scenario is more likely. An early warning of the second scenario would be a break of the resistance at the upper parallel of the red pitchfork .

RSI is giving a small bearish divergence gap on the 4 hr TF, and if the second scenario plays out this gap would become more pronounced. I think the easiest way to monitor things would be to watch the red pitchfork on the lower time frame as this would give the earliest warning of another rally should its upper parallel be breached
Comment: wave B (purple) was meant to be at the second low on 14th March, not the first one as mistakenly shown on the chart.
Comment: As the red pitchfork upper parallel was broken, i think scenario 2 is in effect as indicated. A new blue pitchfork is established using 0-3-4 pivots and it seems to be validating well and defining new support/resistance lines. Initial target for wave 5 would be around 3010 level as this would give equal legs for waves a and c of the higher degree
Comment: Just to raise the possibility that there may have been a truncation within wave 5 of c
Note the break of the blue pitchfork lower parallel without reaching its midline. All this increases the likelihood of a break of the low at wave 4 at 2914. If this does happen then we'll analyse the shape of the declining waves to check if it looks impulsive or just part of a more complex correction in wave 4
Comment: On the other hand the decline so far can be counted as an ABC zigzag so it's important also to be aware of the possibility of an extension within wave 5 (i.e. that all that we have seen of it was only subwave 1 of 5 as in this chart).
The simplest way really is to monitor the reaction to the new blue pitchfork, and the red pitchfork. One of them will break and the other will give guidance as to in which direction we should be trading
Comment: Or...
Trade closed: target reached: Initial target at 3010 achieved as per charts no 3, 4 and before last. Price seems to want to go a bit higher even in the bearish case.
Current price ascent seems to be taking a shape of a diagonal in the bearish case.
I'll do a new thread on the bearish and the bullish counts for this