SPY: Last week of November

Steversteves Updated   
Hey everyone,

So getting to try out some new tools this week.
If you see the chart above, you will see we now have thresholds, prospective ones, for the weekly forecasted levels. So that is a new addition! And I think a helpful addition. I was playing around with this idea for a while and finally was able to execute it quite functionally.

Here is an example of how they work in real life:

They work very well! Sometimes some fake breakouts, but remember the 3 closure rule, which should be 3 closures on a minimum of 1-hour candles, ideally 3 hours and up candles.

Outlook for Monday:
Before I get into the outlook for the week, I just want to talk about the outlook for Monday because it's pretty mixed, and everything is showing intention of doing its own thing on Monday, so let's quickly go over, for you fellow traders, what to kind of look for on Monday.

Here is a breakdown of Momentum Probs for various tickers and indices, including DIA, IWM and SPY:

(This indicator is being released soon btw! Its almost ready)

So generally RSI, Stochastics and Z-Score are the most reliable predictors of sentiment, MFI is the most reliable predictor of Target Prices. So pay more attention to the RSI/Stochastic weighted Bullish vs Bearish sentiment. The screen is too small to show backtest results, but here is an example with the BT results displayed:

You can see, RSI, Z-Score followed by Stochastics are the order of accuracy based on the BT results.

This in comparison to my other stuff is a little conflicting, my other stuff is showing a bit more bearishness on the tech side, especially for QQQ and AMD. However, the one thing everything agrees on is that AMZN should be to the bullish side on Monday. So that is my target haha. I will be watching AMZN for Monday.

If you want to be a little short-biased, I would be looking at tech, waiting for it to do its off-open pop, and then looking for weakness and rejection.

For SPY, I expect it to do what it did Friday, nothing really. Just aggressive up/down pulses, just based on the sheer indecisiveness in the prob assessment, which 99% of the time, translates to range bound, whipsaw-type days.

Outlook for the Week:

The outlook for the week is on the bullish side. I know I and many others were looking for 458, however, as of now, 458 is not showing up in the forecast. The number closest to it is 459 followed by 462. Perhaps our real-time levels will show 458 but yeah..

So if we want to flip those tickers over to the weekly momentum probs:

Hahaha, yeah it's a mess.

So we need to be careful. I think we could see a 180 midweek, if we start off bullish, then a 180 to the bearish side, if we start off bearish, a 180 to the bullish side.

But really should finally, effing finally, see some pullback this week and that is where I would be looking to settle into a EOY long.

In contrast, here were momentum probs for SPY for the week of October 30th:

Week over November 6th:

Week of November 13th:

And last week:

So yeah, substantially more bearishness showing up for next week than we have seen over the past 3 weeks.

That said, no reversal signs have been printed on SPY or ES1! themselves, our Z-Score is still below 2. The only indication of some problems is the VIX has printed a daily buy signal via Z-Score, with the last one corresponding to about a 33% gain in 3 days:

And if you are a Demark, 9 sequential trader, as one of you have informed me, then we are also at a reversal point on the daily:

We are at a 9. Which tends to mean trend exhaustion, from my understanding. I do like demark, one of the TA-based strategies I do find somewhat helpful. But unfortunately, all the Demark indicators seem to have disappeared from Tradingview? I think may be copyright. So, I had to make my own haha.

Verdict and Side Note
So the verdict is, that we really need to be seeing some kind of pullback, the whole chart is pretty unstable. I am not going to be too short-biased and I am not going to expect too aggressive of a pullback, beyond the forecasted targets in the chart, because the sentiment is not there to support it. And I also notice that people have not taken notice to the fact that the fundamentals have actually changed. The probability of a recession has been somewhat decreased as a result of the yield curve that has un-inverted itself. And as someone else pointed out about a recent article of a famous short seller closing his firm because of “Fundamental changes in the market”, it seems be taking everyone by shock.

Don’t get so stuck on a bias. I had people attempting to “school me” back when SPY was at 400 that we would see some kind of precipitous decline. And I, at the time really foresaw a recession and lots of headwinds so agreed. Though the probability is reduced, we aren't out of the woods in terms of a recession because inflation is still a problem. This year marked the first year I actually had to rely on day trading earnings to supplement my professional income. And I don’t have an extravagant lifestyle, I drive a Ford (an expensive one but still a Ford haha), I live in an old farmhouse in the middle of nowhere and I live off of pasta and veggie smoothies. So you know, not really an exciting person to say the least, and I am even finding it difficult to maintain things with the current rate of inflation and interest rate hikes. That said, both Canada and the USA have seemingly paused rate hikes for the time being and report that core inflation is indeed improving, so I guess we’ll see. But if the 80s taught us anything its that, big hair is a no and stock markets can rally at the peak of recessions. But we are not even in a recession so point is moot.. for now.

That said, this week marked the SECOND week in a row a bearish 99 was missed. I have never objectively observed that in real life or in back-test results. It just never happened. It usually is missed on average twice a year, the most was 3 times in a year, but never on consecutive weeks. Because of this, I can't explain the reason for it. I tried to recalculate it, pull more recent data and follow the same process to update it, but it all gave the same ballpark range for last week and this week and all were missed. I am guessing that this is probably the result of some kind of dramatic shift in sentiment and outlook among market participants, but obviously can't be sure.

Anyway, the point to make is, to pay attention to the changing fundamentals and economic things. Where we are now, fundamentally, is different from where we were even just 2 months ago. Fundamentals and economics can move just as aggressively and obnoxiously as the stock market itself.

Those are my thoughts, trade safe and let me know your questions below!

NQ weekly 99


And ES weekly

Just FYI, I won't be updating this idea much if at all.

When the market is like this, there are much better things to play than the indices.
The gains to be made are with actual company tickers like AMZN, AMD, NVDA, BA, etc. Not the indices. So I am not going to be tracking them as closely this week;

Traded AMZN today and now out.

Forgot to post an idea on my one true love stock, BA, but I am watching it currently for a day trade:

If we reject again the bullish condition, its a short down to the 217 range.

I shorted BA, if we bounce here I will get out. Only did 5 contracts.

I legit hit my weekly P&L quota today just mindlessly longing everything any anything. No joke.

Must be the season of the 🐂🐂🐂.
I forgot how.. no erratic.. BA is to day trade:

Still holding this short.
BA is a stock of wisdom, been around for a lot of S&*T but on the old side, so moves a bit slower.

If you're into slow and stead stocks, its def one to check out.
Not erratic*
Okay so I lied, I will update this idea but with all tickers, :p.

I am done for the day, I took so many trades its not even funny. I usually have been trading for my laptop but I actually had to go to my desk today because I had so many open trades, what a mess.

I am out of everything except a lingering position on AMZN which seems to be the "IT" stock this week and I had 1 contract on NVDA but exited a few minutes ago. NVDA and AMZN were the plays today. Between these two I far surpassed my weekly quota from them alone, then BA and a QQQ scalp were just the sugar on top haha. I also did an AAPL scalp which was underwhelming.

As of now, those my thoughts. Will see what the numbers say for tomorrow once we close, but I suspect it will continue to be a buy the dip type situation.

Safe trades everyone!

Expect pullback here on most things, including AAPL.

QQQ I am expecting a pullback towards the weekly threshold level:

SPY hasn't even done anything so nothing really to pullback from:

AAPL probably around 189.68, which is the median average and the daily bear threshold:

BA is a tough call but I have an alert set for a break over 219.04, the bullish condition on the week. Holding this level should bring us to the 220s:

sorry the previous idea got a little jumbled from me copying the charts but you get the idea. :p
Closed out of AMZN. Now positionless.

Seeing a couple red flags. Will update after market closes and I can run the numbers for tomorrow.
Okay, I'm just going to leave things as is.
The concern is that VIX is on support and is also at -1.5 SDs which tends to be a strong support level for the VIX:

Especially with a buy signal from 2 days ago. The other concern is the fact that SPY is just chilling in its threshold range.

All in all, its possible we could see a bit of pullback, kind of like the probs were saying going into the week, that involves SPY actually breaking down from the threshold range and maybe snagging a low target.

I would remain bullish however, and look to enter long, but I don't feel comfortable swinging anything long when SPY is showing like it may be finally ready to give it up and at least give some pullback.

I am actually swinging a direction neutral position though on NVDA. If you have followed me for a while, you will remember I did this a few months ago on NVDA, where I straddled range. That time I had more of an upside bias, but we ended up tanking. This time, despite me being mostly bullish, I am positioned absolutely neutrally, with equal gains to be made if it goes to the high or low targets.

The position consists of 3, 493 OTM put contracts and 3 OTM 497.50 call contracts.
I had to go 1 point above the TP on the put side to ensure that the profits would balance out if we completely reversed down to the bear targets, but because I entered a bit later I was able to go a bit further OTM on the call side of things.

With this, provided either PH1 or PL1 is hit on the week, i stand to gain about 150 to up to 580%, depending on when it hits, correcting for the entry cost and a position that will go worthless, about 30 to 50% net. Not a make billions in a week type of trade, you will never get that with risk off, direction neutral trading, but at least profits. I am doing this in my TFSA actually, I have slowly been building ETF positions, but still have quite a bit of cash that isn't doing much, so figured I would start doing this type of thing. Its a bit safer than selling naked calls, or calls against shares that I own, which are all up quite a bit with this rally. So yeah... This is the alternative.

If you are interested, I can do a how to video or written tutorial on how to apply this strategy. It doesn't work with all stocks, you have to pick out the real movers and groovers, but if you're interested I can give a tutorial on it.

That's it for now!

Safe trades!
Got short on AMD this am.
Targeting 120.40 ish and ideally the 119 range:
Took off half AMD position, its really pulseless PA everywhere, except NVDA and BA is actually moving surprisingly.

Somewhat different but somewhat similar setup to yesterday:

If we hold the 222.63 rejection, the move is back down to those low targets.
If we break it, the move is up to 224.48.

Don't forget about that 99 on ES1!.
It doesn't require a breakout, so based on the PA and just the chart and probs for the week, I am leaning to a move maybe at most to the top of the ES threshold range and then reject. It is looking more and more bearish with each pasisng day.

AMD trail stopped me, I got long on BA and quickly took profits when it started to pullback, which really left me with a minor win (because BA is spready and when it moves against you the spreads are even more unforgivable).

Going to leave it alone. I entered into a straddle today on QQQ, same sitch as nvda, positioned for a move to 397 to the upside or 380 to the downside.

Going to leave it at that and call it a day.

Safe trades everyone :-).
As expected:

Move to the top of the threshold range and reject :-).
Took it short on SPY, and still in short. At this point, leaning bearish as ES is now holding below the threshold range.. but with a major catalyst WTHK.
Unfortunately, I don't really have any suggestions or recommendations today.
SPY and QQQ are just whipsawing, they made a bit of progress outside of their range but quickly getting pulled back into it.
BA is taking a break from all its pumping, not a definitive enough setup for me to advise anything there either.

Personally, have just be scalping NVDA. Made my daily quota on NVDA scalps so will sit the rest out.

The most promising trade out of all that I track is probably BA right here:

Move to the bullish condition at 223.97, ideally breaking, once breaking the move should continue to 225.80.
If it loses the bearish condition at 222.70, the move is to 220.71.

But I can tell by its PA its taking a breather right now haha. So if you do take it just be patient :-).

That's it for now, safe trades everyone!
So haven't really been updating much, this has been a pretty chill week for me, just more reacting to the PA then trying to predict it which, psychologically, was a good call because the PA is pretty bad if you really look at what everything is doing haha.

That said, I decided to pay a bit more attention to the probability going into tomorrow and it is fairly mixed, however notable bearish preference on the futures side of things.

PCE, CPI and the bunch have not been moving markets like they used to, so I am inclined to believe that we are not going to see any decisive action in any direction.
The prerogative is to keep things propped at the expense of meaningful price action, so you have to approach the market with that in mind.

In terms of my straddles, I was able to ditch NVDA with a net gain, sold the calls at a bit of a loss but more than made up for it in the put department.

Took off the remainder of QQQ calls today because of the aforementioned (just range bound behaviour). Holding the puts still which are worthless, but between the gains on the calls with QQQ and the gains on the puts with NVDA, still up.
(Please note, this isn't how you really should do this straddle strategy, but I had to pseudo "defend" my position because of the insistence on the market doing absolutely nothing meaningful, so had to use my best discretion to plan exits here that would optimize the return vs the loss).

I wanna say that this is likely to tank tomorrow, but it probably won't. It will probably go up and will probably continue to remain propped until January when we will likely see a swift and precipitous reality check followed by a catastrophic pullback. This of course is mostly speculation, but I think its well founded.

Also hedge funds and banks can't even agree on the next move. Half saying this is going to tank and we are destined for a recession, the other half saying we should remain propped into EOY and hopefully continue a strong bull market into 2024.

Again, in terms of math and models, nothing is printing a sell signal which is why I am not hopefully for any follow through to the bearish side, but I will be pleasantly surprised if we do see it.

Those are my thoughts, probably going to keep it chill tomorrow again, I may actually even just sit out because I have now doubled my weekly quota at this point. It has been a really good week, I think because I have approached it with a "who the hell cares about anything anymore" mentality haha.

Safe trades everyone! Catch ya later!
I'm sure you all see how sickening SPY is:

Such a joke.
In terms of things that are actually following through on something:

AAPL seems to be heading for the low targets. Though it would be ideal to see 3 hour closes below this threshold range, its not really feasible to wait for with the week ending in 1 day.

NVDA as well:


AMZN snagged the first support zone and is kind of pulling a SPY.

No suggestions. I am actually red on the day having gotten whipsawed by NVDA and Qs. So going to leave it alone.
In a last ditch effort to salavage my day, I got short on NVDA at 472 with some OTM 460 puts, 50 of them, at 0.38 cents.
I am being a bit reckless here, I am up about 280% but haven't taken profits on a single contract.

I am pissed and I want blood. 460 or nothing!

Haha we'll see what happens.

Still holding steady.
The 1 minute ema 9/21 TP is in the weekly low range.
The current 3 hour math level low targets are also in the weekly low range.

Battle of the mind. I am being pretty adamant here because I stand to gain 1,000% if we hit that 460 today, effectively turning 1,900$ of capital into 19,000$. Gains that I haven't realized in a day in a very, very, VERY, long time.

So pray 🙏

Market always wins.

Left 5 runners, and will swing them into tomorrow.
Losses recovered and then some, so I guess that's all that matters really.
Interesting end of the day.
It's interesting to see how bullish the DOW is.

In terms of SPY and QQQ/ ES and NQ for tomorrow, it's looking like more decisive bearishness.

Though I find SPY's way of going about this apparent bearishness particularly odd, I would advise approaching it with some caution and probably avoid it altogether. I think today was the perfect day to highlight why I have moved on to other things haha.

Will catch up with you tomorrow. Have a good evening everyone!


For ES1! bullish to bearish ratio on FROGSTRS is 0:3 and 1:2 on NQ1!.

New Month,
New Levels,
New ATH coming.

I got long today via 500 shares of EQL

We can pull back to the bottom of the threshold, but its so irrelevant at this point and pullback seems more and more difficult to achieve.
If we pullback, then great, I will add another 500, if not, then I will scale in more on the brek-out of the threshold.

I'm over trying to find an idea entry.

I got in on QQQ earlier in the week and have been scaling in on that.

All in all, I'm bullish into the EOY.

I'lll post the ranges for SPY for next week in a new idea but for day trading sticking with NVDA and BA next week so will update those, not SPY.

SPY I am just in it for the long haul at this point.

Catch you this weekend!

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