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Why the monthly looks bearish

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (AMEX:SPY)  
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AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) S&P 500 (SPX500) ES es!
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spy spx500 es es!
I'm bearish on the monthly unless we have a miracle on SPX500

We've had 5 bounces of this key support line, I view it like ice on a pond. Every rally after it is shorter lived and weaker since the 2nd bounce

If we retest this support area I think could be the final straw that breaks the ponds back
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