.... What do you think?! Just.. .short it.
But seriously, I will keep this fairly brief because not much is really needed here.
Current Status:
- Head and shoulders on the 1 hour
- Upcoming earnings on absolutely everything imaginable and then some (AAPL, TSLA, GRMN, RTX, BA, the list goes on)
- FOMC meeting starting tomorrow with the ush 2 pm release on Wednesday
- Stagnate price action everywhere as expected leading into FOMC (Analyst majority consensus is a 75 BP hike, minority is 100 BP hike).
- SPY also in another sort of megaphone type pattern, which is also being viewed as a head and shoulders. Either way, not a healthy looking chart to say the least, however your Rorschach brains interpret it.
Current Thoughts:
- My initial thoughts were long biased into Wednesday, switching to a short bias on Thursday.
- The day played out as expected, futures hit by first bullish target pre market opened followed by stagnation for the duration of the market open with SPY really not hitting any targets and remaining stagnant with an air of bullishness.
- WMT released some negative news which tanked it and brought it down about 10%, this had an initial wash over to SPY and ES but it seems to be recovering in ES futures trading session.
- Nothing has really changed since my last analysis, 405 is currently still the time series cap. This will expire as of Thursday and I will have to re-run the analysis then to see if anything changes too substantially.
- Current trading range predicted for this week is 383 - 409 (I round this up to 410 because 410 is just a psychological number that fits nicer, but mathematically TECHNICALLY its 409. And TECHNICALLY 408.78 ;), lots and lots of rounding here haha, but will be transparent).
Technical analysis:
- The chart is awkward and looking at the chart its hard to fathom much more upside here. It is possible, but would be extremely awkward and really would make this more of a bull pennant than a Head and shoulders pattern or a megaphone. You can get some more clarity looking at how futures looks:
- We haven't really deviated much from my last Z Score chart, so no need to update. I think if we get some crazy action this week, it will be helpful to take a look at where we are.
- Immediate targets here are TBD. I have none. I expect consolidation to continue into FOMC. Nothing dramatic yet. No major tankage and no major rallying until FOMC. Take the opportunity to build your positions in whichever direction you think its going to go. Not all that great for day trading because its moving at a glacial pace with this chop and not really hitting any of my bearish or bullish targets, so you need to watch it too intently to gauge your exits.
Verdict and What I think personally:
I mean, this could technically go up a bit higher. But it just would be messy, messy, messy. And awkward. I was thinking 405 would be coming but now.... yeah I am not all that sure. I know this year has really made us really doubt the obvious, but you know, the truth is sometimes the most obvious answer is the correct answer. Even with those silly rabbit MMs making us second guess EVERYTHING. If you are going to scale in short now, the only advice I have is to prepare to go a bit red because some upside is possible here. But the downside will come swiftly and abruptly and its a tossup for chasing the perfect entry or just getting in while you have a not terrible entry.
But judging by the technicals I don't expect an overly bearish day tomorrow. I think it will be another messy, choppy day. Maybe some selling towards end of day with FUD leading into FOMC.
- Personally, I will be entering shorts probably as of tomorrow on:
- DIA
- IWM
- SPY
- Maybe RIVN
Current active trades:
BA straddle (see my idea linked below if you are curious).
Lets hope it goes well and I am up millions and can retire by Friday.
Thanks for reading! Do your own analysis and plan your own trades!
As always, leave your comments/questions and critiques below.
Trade safe!
But seriously, I will keep this fairly brief because not much is really needed here.
Current Status:
- Head and shoulders on the 1 hour
- Upcoming earnings on absolutely everything imaginable and then some (AAPL, TSLA, GRMN, RTX, BA, the list goes on)
- FOMC meeting starting tomorrow with the ush 2 pm release on Wednesday
- Stagnate price action everywhere as expected leading into FOMC (Analyst majority consensus is a 75 BP hike, minority is 100 BP hike).
- SPY also in another sort of megaphone type pattern, which is also being viewed as a head and shoulders. Either way, not a healthy looking chart to say the least, however your Rorschach brains interpret it.
Current Thoughts:
- My initial thoughts were long biased into Wednesday, switching to a short bias on Thursday.
- The day played out as expected, futures hit by first bullish target pre market opened followed by stagnation for the duration of the market open with SPY really not hitting any targets and remaining stagnant with an air of bullishness.
- WMT released some negative news which tanked it and brought it down about 10%, this had an initial wash over to SPY and ES but it seems to be recovering in ES futures trading session.
- Nothing has really changed since my last analysis, 405 is currently still the time series cap. This will expire as of Thursday and I will have to re-run the analysis then to see if anything changes too substantially.
- Current trading range predicted for this week is 383 - 409 (I round this up to 410 because 410 is just a psychological number that fits nicer, but mathematically TECHNICALLY its 409. And TECHNICALLY 408.78 ;), lots and lots of rounding here haha, but will be transparent).
Technical analysis:
- The chart is awkward and looking at the chart its hard to fathom much more upside here. It is possible, but would be extremely awkward and really would make this more of a bull pennant than a Head and shoulders pattern or a megaphone. You can get some more clarity looking at how futures looks:
- We haven't really deviated much from my last Z Score chart, so no need to update. I think if we get some crazy action this week, it will be helpful to take a look at where we are.
- Immediate targets here are TBD. I have none. I expect consolidation to continue into FOMC. Nothing dramatic yet. No major tankage and no major rallying until FOMC. Take the opportunity to build your positions in whichever direction you think its going to go. Not all that great for day trading because its moving at a glacial pace with this chop and not really hitting any of my bearish or bullish targets, so you need to watch it too intently to gauge your exits.
Verdict and What I think personally:
I mean, this could technically go up a bit higher. But it just would be messy, messy, messy. And awkward. I was thinking 405 would be coming but now.... yeah I am not all that sure. I know this year has really made us really doubt the obvious, but you know, the truth is sometimes the most obvious answer is the correct answer. Even with those silly rabbit MMs making us second guess EVERYTHING. If you are going to scale in short now, the only advice I have is to prepare to go a bit red because some upside is possible here. But the downside will come swiftly and abruptly and its a tossup for chasing the perfect entry or just getting in while you have a not terrible entry.
But judging by the technicals I don't expect an overly bearish day tomorrow. I think it will be another messy, choppy day. Maybe some selling towards end of day with FUD leading into FOMC.
- Personally, I will be entering shorts probably as of tomorrow on:
- DIA
- IWM
- SPY
- Maybe RIVN
Current active trades:
BA straddle (see my idea linked below if you are curious).
Lets hope it goes well and I am up millions and can retire by Friday.
Thanks for reading! Do your own analysis and plan your own trades!
As always, leave your comments/questions and critiques below.
Trade safe!
Premium indicators and content have launched! Get access at: www.patreon.com/steversteves
I switched long EOD today because they were selling off MSFT and GOOG WAYYYYY too hard. It was a little suspish.
I do expect some rallying into FOMC. Lots of games being played. Be careful out there!
My plan is to enter short on any rally tomorrow though for a longer term swing.