The Clear View on the SPY

The chart above shows that it has mocked the 5-0 harmonic , rising well above the 191.80 level. It has also retraced more than 61.8%, a key Fibonacci level, of the move lower from the all-time high. The RSI has also continued up through the mid line and the MACD is rising. These are good things. But there are some characteristics on the chart that still warrant a cautious view.

That RSI has not yet crossed back into the bullish zone, by moving over 60. The volume on the move higher is not only lighter, but falling. And price has not yet crossed the 50 day SMA , much less made a new high. All of these negatives could change in a day or this week, but until they do there is a move lower that made a lower low and action that may be making a lower high. That is the definition of a downtrend. I am going to keep a cautious eye for a while longer.


Are we getting ready for a sell in Apri/May correction period ?