The Call:Put spread on SPY is insanely bullish, an indication of greed - a correction is severely needed but is being timed by the banks so that they all have the cheapest puts in place before dropping this like a rock. It's not a matter of if but when. Scale into position as the downtrend begins to re-establish and propping comes to a halt.
@Tchitchikov, I'll admit it gets harder and harder by the day to keep averaging into a diminishing short position... feels like it'll go for that 200DMA at least once more. My guess it'll clip it intraday at some point at which point the banks will pile into puts just when every bull thinks the battle's been won only to see it come crashing back down. Happened when the bounce was rejected by the 200DMA in 2008.
@Tchitchikov, LOL aye...waiting for that day for dip buyers to get punished and realize they're not getting their money back. Then the panic begins. I think we need to break 267 for any real panic. I'm pretty bearish but even I feel comfortable scalping calls at that level.
17 yr trend line I dont think is relavent anymore - in a zone of price discovery now - spx didnt react to it during the most recent volatility. however, with 200 day right above us I do believe your general thesis is correct.