There is a lot to unpack for next week. And I am misleading you with the displayed probabilities.
So, probably read carefully.
What happened this week:
The key take away from this week is we made lower highs, formed a triangle and broke down and closed below it today.
Unrealized targets:
We have an unrealized target on UPRO at 36.88. This is a monthly target.
We also have unrealized targets (at less probability odds) on QQQ and pretty much all of tech (I will link the video below where I discuss this).
Probability for next week:
So this is where it becomes a real S**T tornado. The probabilities are all over the place.
Now, the probabilities I am displaying in this chart are for SPX, not SPY. Reason being, SPX has much better results than SPY which had no identified technical days.
This makes sense, the weeks that SPX identified mostly pre-date SPY's existence except one (remember, I was able to pull all SPX data since 1872, so the prob model is far more extensive!)
The weeks identified are:
1960-08-29
1988-10-31
1993-05-31
1994-08-01
2011-05-09
2011-05-09 does exist for SPY (see below):
However it was a range bound week for SPY.
So what do the SPY probabilities say?
They are not great.
No technically identical days.
When I drop the price condition (meaning it ignores the price loss/gain) the results are:
2 results,
0:2 for highs
1:2 for lows.
On the momentum side, the results are pretty bad:
4:5 favours upside and
1:5 favours downside.
However, I never generally will rely on momentum alone for the weekly, because momentum can change so quickly. I also find the momentum results on the weekly timeframe to be less reliable.
That said, they should NOT be ignored. And if anything, they should caution you about going all in in one direction or the other.
Now on SPX, both technical and momentum are bearish. Its just all bearish for SPX.
This is the same with QQQ. QQQ favours a move to the downside by a long shot next week based on both momentum and technicals.
IWM is more obscure, but definitely showing more bullishness than anything.
So what does this all mean?
In short, here is the summary of next week:
Key Take away:
If you desperately wanna short, QQQ is probably the safest.
If you desperately wanna long, IWM is probably the safest.
If you wanna get tossed around and whipped back and fourth like a rag doll, only to end up exactly where you started... SPY is your best bet.
Safe trades everyone!
So, probably read carefully.
What happened this week:
The key take away from this week is we made lower highs, formed a triangle and broke down and closed below it today.
Unrealized targets:
We have an unrealized target on UPRO at 36.88. This is a monthly target.
We also have unrealized targets (at less probability odds) on QQQ and pretty much all of tech (I will link the video below where I discuss this).
Probability for next week:
So this is where it becomes a real S**T tornado. The probabilities are all over the place.
Now, the probabilities I am displaying in this chart are for SPX, not SPY. Reason being, SPX has much better results than SPY which had no identified technical days.
This makes sense, the weeks that SPX identified mostly pre-date SPY's existence except one (remember, I was able to pull all SPX data since 1872, so the prob model is far more extensive!)
The weeks identified are:
1960-08-29
1988-10-31
1993-05-31
1994-08-01
2011-05-09
2011-05-09 does exist for SPY (see below):
However it was a range bound week for SPY.
So what do the SPY probabilities say?
They are not great.
No technically identical days.
When I drop the price condition (meaning it ignores the price loss/gain) the results are:
2 results,
0:2 for highs
1:2 for lows.
On the momentum side, the results are pretty bad:
4:5 favours upside and
1:5 favours downside.
However, I never generally will rely on momentum alone for the weekly, because momentum can change so quickly. I also find the momentum results on the weekly timeframe to be less reliable.
That said, they should NOT be ignored. And if anything, they should caution you about going all in in one direction or the other.
Now on SPX, both technical and momentum are bearish. Its just all bearish for SPX.
This is the same with QQQ. QQQ favours a move to the downside by a long shot next week based on both momentum and technicals.
IWM is more obscure, but definitely showing more bullishness than anything.
So what does this all mean?
In short, here is the summary of next week:
Key Take away:
If you desperately wanna short, QQQ is probably the safest.
If you desperately wanna long, IWM is probably the safest.
If you wanna get tossed around and whipped back and fourth like a rag doll, only to end up exactly where you started... SPY is your best bet.
Safe trades everyone!
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SPX and SPY hit its targets. 399.59 on SPY and 4011.24 on SPX.
The next level I would be watching for is 395 on SPY and 3390 on SPX.
I posted a video update, I attempted to long for a bounce. Its very possible we get a bounce around here but its not worth the risk at this point, this is HEAVY.
Safe trades everyone!