Getting Complex on Pullback in S&P500 Hourly

The S&P 500 gapped lower today on the open, but then proceeded to fill the gap and end up unchanged for the day. After filling the gap, the S&P 500 did retest the morning low but did not break it, thereby not confirming the current zone as a swing high (see links to my two previous posts below). The upshot is that, in the hourly chart, we remain in a toppy consolidation pattern featuring an a-b-c-d retracement in Wave 2 of the downtrend in place since Feb. 27.

Still, the 50 MA is angling downward, and the short-term oscillator is back at an oversold level. Hence, the probabilities still favor the next impulse move being to the downside. That would establish wave 3 in the current downtrend.

But one never knows with the S&P 500 . A solid close above 274.61 (based on SPY ), along with the angling up of the 50MA, would change the analysis.
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