The lower bull rally trend line (THIN BLUE) was broken last week, that's a fact. This is evident on all charts from 1m to 1D. Here's what I'm looking for and this can take hours, days, weeks to occur:
1. As of today, we are following the 100MA which currently sits at ~290 and is flattened with minimal downward trajectory hence the movement today, price is sitting right under it. The 200MA is slighly above it at ~294 with minimal downward trajectory. These are the the most powerful factors to my prediction (BOLD RED).
2.Bear trend line from Feb highs to 29Apr shooting star wick to confirm downward trend. So far so good here. (THIN RED)
3.Look to see downward trend line push prices lower during mid-end of May. Price will pull away from MAs on the 1h and eventually the MAs will death cross. First on the 1h, then a large drop. When this happens, down the track we go
4. From there, sometime in June-July we reassess and determine where the bottom is. U shaped is most probable but L is not out of the question. V is out for me (confirmed by broken bull trend line last week)
Also, I threw in a Head and Shoulder Pattern with neck line (THIN GREEN), All very bearish signs to me.
This is a just a generalization of what the next 60ish days may look like imo. Full disclosure, I took a large short position when SPY was at 285 mid Apr, knowing it could go to 300 to complete an Elliot wave 5. It did and it sucks but still holding. Some of the daily movement makes no sense but the TA is still accurate. Stay patient and dont let every intra day movement worry you if your technical are still correct. #DiamondHands
My exit is 305 at a loss or under 230 for big gain (we'll see when we get there). I may have been early but I don't think I'm wrong...Risk/Reward play here
1. As of today, we are following the 100MA which currently sits at ~290 and is flattened with minimal downward trajectory hence the movement today, price is sitting right under it. The 200MA is slighly above it at ~294 with minimal downward trajectory. These are the the most powerful factors to my prediction (BOLD RED).
2.Bear trend line from Feb highs to 29Apr shooting star wick to confirm downward trend. So far so good here. (THIN RED)
3.Look to see downward trend line push prices lower during mid-end of May. Price will pull away from MAs on the 1h and eventually the MAs will death cross. First on the 1h, then a large drop. When this happens, down the track we go
4. From there, sometime in June-July we reassess and determine where the bottom is. U shaped is most probable but L is not out of the question. V is out for me (confirmed by broken bull trend line last week)
Also, I threw in a Head and Shoulder Pattern with neck line (THIN GREEN), All very bearish signs to me.
This is a just a generalization of what the next 60ish days may look like imo. Full disclosure, I took a large short position when SPY was at 285 mid Apr, knowing it could go to 300 to complete an Elliot wave 5. It did and it sucks but still holding. Some of the daily movement makes no sense but the TA is still accurate. Stay patient and dont let every intra day movement worry you if your technical are still correct. #DiamondHands
My exit is 305 at a loss or under 230 for big gain (we'll see when we get there). I may have been early but I don't think I'm wrong...Risk/Reward play here