ETA for end of recession. Tiny uptick starting.

SPY

History repeats itself for the most part, so this idea is based solely on similar bear markets. With earnings coming out and the massive drop we've already seen, it's not surprising we're going to be pumping in the short term. I'm looking for a pump to the $420 range before entering puts. Fed's still raising rates and all previous problems are still relevant. Spy anywhere around the 220 mark is a steal.

Comment:

So far the bear market rally is continuing as planned. An approximate time it will last is around 60 days from the lows based on 2001, and 2008.

2001:

2008:

Based on this I plan on buying SPY puts on august 15th with a time span of 6 months to a year. Although this trade looks very clear cut, my concern is that everyone's already screaming "recession" and "bear market rally". I've learned that common knowledge usually doesn't pan out in markets so have to be cautious with this trade.

2022:

Comment:

I'm about a week early, but got my puts in for Jan 20 2023 at the $395 strike.

Comment:

Doubled down on my SPY puts expiring January 20th. Everything has been playing out to the T and I feel very confident with the play after the market reaction to Powell's talk today. Also changed my recession low to roughly $235.