Truthfully, I have a tough time believing this pattern can play out. I'm not a "the world is ending" believer. Which is essentially what a move down to 250 in just a week is saying. Technically though, it's very much in play.
Yesterday was a retest of the previously made low. Technically a move up to 299 today or 295 tomorrow, followed by a reject, would still make this pattern valid. It'd provide that bounce to get things out of oversold readings as well... Friday's have commonly been red days lately due to the uncertainty entering the weekend. Monday comes along...boom more bad virus numbers hit.
Remember the VIX broke out....and has successfully retested:
Flag forming in Futures:
As long as the flag don't breakdown, there's a good long opportunity right now. Just have to disciplined. A breakout of the flag would of course be bullish...
Just of note:
The market has dropped this much, and the U.S. still hasn't reached a full on outbreak panic. People are still going to work, big events are being advised to be cancelled, but NOT permitted. The U.S. has been lagging proper precautions for months now. Yet to see any signs of that changing. Which means the peak isn't here. So as unimaginable as the SPY dropping 90 points off of ATH's in a month is, everything is setup to allow that to happen.
Yesterday was a retest of the previously made low. Technically a move up to 299 today or 295 tomorrow, followed by a reject, would still make this pattern valid. It'd provide that bounce to get things out of oversold readings as well... Friday's have commonly been red days lately due to the uncertainty entering the weekend. Monday comes along...boom more bad virus numbers hit.
Remember the VIX broke out....and has successfully retested:
Flag forming in Futures:
As long as the flag don't breakdown, there's a good long opportunity right now. Just have to disciplined. A breakout of the flag would of course be bullish...
Just of note:
The market has dropped this much, and the U.S. still hasn't reached a full on outbreak panic. People are still going to work, big events are being advised to be cancelled, but NOT permitted. The U.S. has been lagging proper precautions for months now. Yet to see any signs of that changing. Which means the peak isn't here. So as unimaginable as the SPY dropping 90 points off of ATH's in a month is, everything is setup to allow that to happen.
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The wedge formed inside the bear flag. Interesting...as a basic rule of thumb is the size of move once the pattern breaks would be of the largest up/down move within the move. In this case, that move was 15pts.
A 15 Point drop puts the SPY around 262:
Right back to the October 2018 sell-off lows.
The wedge formed inside the bear flag. Interesting...as a basic rule of thumb is the size of move once the pattern breaks would be of the largest up/down move within the move. In this case, that move was 15pts.
A 15 Point drop puts the SPY around 262:
Right back to the October 2018 sell-off lows.
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Within the wedge*** (Not within the move)
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Big point of confluence here. Wanna see it get above it to prevent further short term downside.
Big point of confluence here. Wanna see it get above it to prevent further short term downside.
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And just like that....there is 260
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Anyone seen Italy lately?:
Supports just keep getting blown through....
--Keep the stop/losses tight.
--260 is good entry, low risk/reward area....don't stay if it breaks through. Discipline. Ultimately the 250 area still looks like the "ultimate" bounce target here. But keep in mind, we are in unprecedented times right now. Good luck finding the last time you see a chart like this...
FB is interesting as well....different overall setup, but similar pattern:
Megaphone....broke the to the upside....impulsive move....then broke back down below the upper trendline....and swoosh straight down to the lower side.
Anyone seen Italy lately?:
Supports just keep getting blown through....
--Keep the stop/losses tight.
--260 is good entry, low risk/reward area....don't stay if it breaks through. Discipline. Ultimately the 250 area still looks like the "ultimate" bounce target here. But keep in mind, we are in unprecedented times right now. Good luck finding the last time you see a chart like this...
FB is interesting as well....different overall setup, but similar pattern:
Megaphone....broke the to the upside....impulsive move....then broke back down below the upper trendline....and swoosh straight down to the lower side.