Hey all,
If you look at my TradingView posts, I've been very bearish for a while now, and nothing has changed; heading into today, I had zero longs, and was fully positioned short. My price target on SPY was 372, and we're probably going to get there tomorrow. I think there is a strong possibility we bounce off of that previous strong support level now that we are a little extended to the downside in the near term, and I am of the belief that we revisit ~389 on SPY as a backtest. Also, I am of the belief that this setup could be essentially a 1-for-1 replica of the move-down we had back when the March rally faded. I've got similar points in the graph highlighted, and my expected move is drawn out on SPY.
My plan is to take serious profits at and around the 372 level, but I remain of the STRONG belief that we cut through new lows; I might add that I would lean towards the scenario where we briefly undercut the 372 level before reclaiming it and ideally revisiting the 389 level. If we are to revisit 389 as I expect, I will be entering back fully short quickly; 389 is a GREAT level to short off of. My favorite names short right now are in the EV and solar sector: TSLA, PLUG, SEDG, etc. I also really like FCX short as well.
Not to fearmonger, but I am of the belief that the worst has yet to come. I think, when this bear market is all said and done, ARKK will look like the Nasdaq in 2000(one final and sizable leg lower left before any bottom is put in), and the S&P500 will look most similar to 1973. I expect there to be bounces as we churn lower, but none to be as sizable as the one we experienced this summer.
For reference, my biggest positions short heading into today were(in order of largest to smallest):
F
MGM
DE
SEDG
AMAT
PLUG
SMH
GOOG
AMZN
XLY
ENPH
GE
FCX
SQ
inverse funds I am long on:
SQQQ
SARK
A family member's account shorts- account I manage-
TAN
XLY
MS
WMS(not my idea)
DE
GS
TSLA
AMAT
F
PANW
CRWD
GOOG
COST
SMH
DKS
AMZN
QQQ
PLUG
MGM
CHPT
TXRH
XRT
XLI
MOO
JKS
ENPH
SEDG
FCX
NTR
GES
SQ
MOS
GE
Long inverse: SARK
Even if things don't play out as I expect, I still expect to be able to find solid entries short at or higher than my exit point.
If you look at my TradingView posts, I've been very bearish for a while now, and nothing has changed; heading into today, I had zero longs, and was fully positioned short. My price target on SPY was 372, and we're probably going to get there tomorrow. I think there is a strong possibility we bounce off of that previous strong support level now that we are a little extended to the downside in the near term, and I am of the belief that we revisit ~389 on SPY as a backtest. Also, I am of the belief that this setup could be essentially a 1-for-1 replica of the move-down we had back when the March rally faded. I've got similar points in the graph highlighted, and my expected move is drawn out on SPY.
My plan is to take serious profits at and around the 372 level, but I remain of the STRONG belief that we cut through new lows; I might add that I would lean towards the scenario where we briefly undercut the 372 level before reclaiming it and ideally revisiting the 389 level. If we are to revisit 389 as I expect, I will be entering back fully short quickly; 389 is a GREAT level to short off of. My favorite names short right now are in the EV and solar sector: TSLA, PLUG, SEDG, etc. I also really like FCX short as well.
Not to fearmonger, but I am of the belief that the worst has yet to come. I think, when this bear market is all said and done, ARKK will look like the Nasdaq in 2000(one final and sizable leg lower left before any bottom is put in), and the S&P500 will look most similar to 1973. I expect there to be bounces as we churn lower, but none to be as sizable as the one we experienced this summer.
For reference, my biggest positions short heading into today were(in order of largest to smallest):
F
MGM
DE
SEDG
AMAT
PLUG
SMH
GOOG
AMZN
XLY
ENPH
GE
FCX
SQ
inverse funds I am long on:
SQQQ
SARK
A family member's account shorts- account I manage-
TAN
XLY
MS
WMS(not my idea)
DE
GS
TSLA
AMAT
F
PANW
CRWD
GOOG
COST
SMH
DKS
AMZN
QQQ
PLUG
MGM
CHPT
TXRH
XRT
XLI
MOO
JKS
ENPH
SEDG
FCX
NTR
GES
SQ
MOS
GE
Long inverse: SARK
Even if things don't play out as I expect, I still expect to be able to find solid entries short at or higher than my exit point.