I SPY a bear

I posted bull scenarios last week, here's the bear scenario if no deal gets done. Appears to be doing a two step drop like May, movement lines up the same.

Regardless of if we're heading to a new high, doing a two step drop like May, or whipsawing like August, everything seems to indicate a bounce tomorrow. No indication which way the market will gap.

The bear scenario takes SPY down to $276 area as soon as next Friday....

No position, just putting up plots for possible scenarios.

Comment:

Looking very bearish, but SPX rarely ever leaves two open down gaps in a row, especially this big. So it's almost guaranteed that if it gaps down tomorrow, the gap will get filled.

I assume an up gap will also get filled quickly, as the market looks very bearish.

I dumped my puts and stayed out of the market today, sort of glad because I thought the market was going to bounce tomorrow and I was going to buy calls before the close.

Comment:

Like I said yesterday, SPX rarely leaves two open gaps down, not a good bet to chase big gaps down hoping for another one.

This may just be a continuation of the bear flag the market was forming yesterday, just basically ignored the afternoon tank which didn't seem to fit the charts anyways.

Probably gonna stay out of the market today and work on other stuff.

Comment:

I'm beginning to think that they'll do a partial deal with China, and some sectors will rally while others tank on Monday....

So more whipsaw coming.

Comment:

Looks to me like we're getting a partial China deal which will more than likely whipsaw the market and cause sector rotation.

Not sure we can get a new ATH without AMZN and FB participating. AAPL and GOOGL will hit new ATH though.

Comment:

Yesterday afternoon futures tanked and recovered, today is like opposite day, pumped futures and now they're scrolling down.

I assume a gap up tiomorrow morning though because of the pump and dump algos.