A cautious "Rally" Let's take another look
So now, we are approaching the high's of the slanted channel or bear flag.
- This so called bear flag is invalidated and treated more as a channel given the volume ranges. Normally with a bear flag you wanna see decreasing volume less volatility.
I believe strongly we will break the highs of channel above 443's with a continuation up towards 450's at best 460's before we return.
Other key things to note.
1. The market is going to crash now?
a. The risk to reward for the big pockets is not in their favor shorts with huge pockets have covered their positions!
I. This is not to say they are gone, they are simply waiting for another entry, a third wave if you'd like
b. Everyone is centered focused on puts, when has retail ever been accurate or control the game?
I. Always bear in mind 90% don't have any money. they fail, they lose as such do not and i repeat, do not trade with the pack.
c. The technicals, you know that thing that traders should be knowledgeable of? They support a bounce, "relief rally"
I. RSI went sub 30, sub 25. which it hasn't done since 2020 crash.
II. Macd turned red
III. Vix rejected 30's
IIII. Put to call ratio declining.
Also, i know people are watching $US10Y, and they are like whoaaa the market gonna crash. Because it's going up. well not necessarily. there's room for both the US10Y to go up and we get a bounce...
Now that we've covered a summary of basis for bounce: Again, this market is becoming less friendly for swing trading and more day trading friendly maybe a 1-2 day hold a best.
Why?
Well, we're going to be experiencing notable volatility going forward and with that the Implied volatility will be high as expectations increase which will crush contracts as fast as you can blink and we could see big rises and dips as the market does that..
What do i recommend?
1. Take smaller positions and average in or up as oppose to starting big and be cautious averaging.
2. understand you stop losses (mental or mechanical)
3. Know your support and resistances!
4. Please, keep up to date, with economic dates too much get burn not knowing that hey, "the Fomc is gonna speak today" having large positions in uncertain market hours.
5. Keep those emotions in check.
Okay with all that said DISCLAIMER: i do not see us going to all time highs and ever 460's is quite pushing it. But anything can happen I'm in favor of a 450's touch and churning back down just in time to go sub 400's for rate hawkish rate hikes
- This so called bear flag is invalidated and treated more as a channel given the volume ranges. Normally with a bear flag you wanna see decreasing volume less volatility.
I believe strongly we will break the highs of channel above 443's with a continuation up towards 450's at best 460's before we return.
Other key things to note.
1. The market is going to crash now?
a. The risk to reward for the big pockets is not in their favor shorts with huge pockets have covered their positions!
I. This is not to say they are gone, they are simply waiting for another entry, a third wave if you'd like
b. Everyone is centered focused on puts, when has retail ever been accurate or control the game?
I. Always bear in mind 90% don't have any money. they fail, they lose as such do not and i repeat, do not trade with the pack.
c. The technicals, you know that thing that traders should be knowledgeable of? They support a bounce, "relief rally"
I. RSI went sub 30, sub 25. which it hasn't done since 2020 crash.
II. Macd turned red
III. Vix rejected 30's
Also, i know people are watching $US10Y, and they are like whoaaa the market gonna crash. Because it's going up. well not necessarily. there's room for both the US10Y to go up and we get a bounce...
Now that we've covered a summary of basis for bounce: Again, this market is becoming less friendly for swing trading and more day trading friendly maybe a 1-2 day hold a best.
Why?
Well, we're going to be experiencing notable volatility going forward and with that the Implied volatility will be high as expectations increase which will crush contracts as fast as you can blink and we could see big rises and dips as the market does that..
What do i recommend?
1. Take smaller positions and average in or up as oppose to starting big and be cautious averaging.
2. understand you stop losses (mental or mechanical)
3. Know your support and resistances!
4. Please, keep up to date, with economic dates too much get burn not knowing that hey, "the Fomc is gonna speak today" having large positions in uncertain market hours.
5. Keep those emotions in check.
Okay with all that said DISCLAIMER: i do not see us going to all time highs and ever 460's is quite pushing it. But anything can happen I'm in favor of a 450's touch and churning back down just in time to go sub 400's for rate hawkish rate hikes
Comment:
beautiful if you traded today's exp calls from open you'd be able to make at least 50% 0dte :).
Comment:
pure beaut
Comment:
i would not continue to keep a long position at these levels untill friday's meeting or job report data comes out/
Comment:
We're almost at forecasted 460's. Holding past previous sell alert wasn't wise but if you held 460's would be a nice place or just under a nice place to lock in gains and come back again.
Comment:
like is said.....
