KholleKhokk

Snapchat IPO - thoughts

KholleKhokk Updated   
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
1. 158 million people use Snapchat every day.
2. User growth is slowing.
3. Snapchat’s revenue skyrocketed in 2016 to $404.5 million.
That’s up from $58.7 million in 2015.
4. Snapchat lost a ridiculous amount of money in 2016: $514.6 million.
5. Snapchat sells most of its own advertising. In 2016, 91 percent of Snapchat’s
advertising came through direct sales. In 2015, that figure was 87 percent.

Snap plans to gain 3 Billion USD, with the valuation of $20-25 Billions.


My thoughts:

Snap chat is cool, but:
1. Instagram has launched it Stories in 2016 Q3.

2. Snapchat has started increasing their ADVERTISEMENT
which is irritating its users (young people hate ADS)
in Q3-Q4 2016.

3. the DAU (daily average users) growth is slowing since
Q2 2016. Which directly shows affect of first 2 points.
And inflow back to instagram is quite possible.

4. High expences. Its more like twitter. Possibly will not become profitable in next several years.

Verdict: Pump and dump, just like COUPA IPO. See the $COUP chart.
I am not participating in this IPO


Comment:
that was a pump.
Comment:
and thats a dump ;)
Comment:
and thats why i didn't participate in this IPO...
Comment:
Miserable stock, as predicted. More downside may happen soon.
Comment:
OH SNAP! After Hours: 17.30 -5.68 (-24.72%)

$SNAP reports $2.2B loss in Q1'17

The company's net loss widened to $2.21 billion, or $2.31 per share, in the first quarter, from $104.6 million, or 14 cents per share, due to stock-based compensation around the IPO.
--------
Snap said its daily active users (DAUs) rose 36.1 percent to 166 million in the first quarter ended March 31.

The company reported a 47.7 percent rise in users for the fourth quarter and a 62.8 percent jump in the third quarter, according to its IPO filing.
Comment:
So, everything I wrote in first post happened/revealed with company's ER:

>Snapchat’s daily active users grew to 166 million for the quarter. That’s a 36 percent year-over-year increase.

Growth is slowing. Instagram's stories working well here.

>Snap said average revenue per user rose 181.3 percent to 90 cents in the first quarter.

its year to year, because the first quater in 2016 was working without ads.

>Snap said revenue jumped nearly four-fold to $149.6 million.

Same. Also analysts on average had expected revenue of $158 million.

The Best Tweet that made my day: "To all the millennials who bought $SNAP and just got their faces ripped off, hi and welcome to trading".

That brings me to idea, that we won't see any 20+ price in next 3-6 months.
Comment:
Yesterday $SNAP lockup period expired... millenials are running away with their loss at price of $13.
...
"To all the millennials who bought $SNAP and just got their faces ripped off, hi and welcome to trading".

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