SPY Fractal: will SPY re-capture 390 after a hammer & engulfing?
Pessimism is all over with analyst calling for recession & another 20% drop from 390. SPY already made an impressive recovery from June Low even touching ma200 line but then falls back to the 390 zone after high inflation data. Further rally was again delayed by FDX declaring recession & slashing guidance. Adobe also contributed to the pessimism after investors didn’t like its over-priced purchase of a competitor.
POSITIVE VIEW: UPS’s announcement did not quite agree with FDX so maybe FDX is just losing its logistics business to UPS & AMZN. Market may have over-reacted. If after today, FED raises by 75 basis points which was already priced in, SPY may continue to bounce especially now that it already made a hammer & a bullish engulfing candle in the last 2 days. Maybe SPY will initially tank to make a bigger bulltrap before rising above 390 again. This will confirm the ongoing bullish divergences & a rally
may follow soon. SPY now at the crossroad of my dotted 0.786 Fib Channel line & the pandemic trendline.
Also, price action is somewhat similar to the fractal in the chart which ends bullish.
NEGATIVE SIDE: End of September is historically bearish before a rally in the 4Q.
BUT this time it may be different.
Not trading advice
POSITIVE VIEW: UPS’s announcement did not quite agree with FDX so maybe FDX is just losing its logistics business to UPS & AMZN. Market may have over-reacted. If after today, FED raises by 75 basis points which was already priced in, SPY may continue to bounce especially now that it already made a hammer & a bullish engulfing candle in the last 2 days. Maybe SPY will initially tank to make a bigger bulltrap before rising above 390 again. This will confirm the ongoing bullish divergences & a rally
may follow soon. SPY now at the crossroad of my dotted 0.786 Fib Channel line & the pandemic trendline.
Also, price action is somewhat similar to the fractal in the chart which ends bullish.
NEGATIVE SIDE: End of September is historically bearish before a rally in the 4Q.
BUT this time it may be different.
Not trading advice