Official Call:The S&P Top is in

I hereby officially delare that a multi-year top for the S&P 500 is in. We are not going to close a candle body above 315 for years after this week. Next week might have us see a bearish engulfing, we might get some reckless bulls to give a reversal wick but really, its over. The top is in and the volume tells the tale.

Key points to remember about the main chart

• Trendline that was support is now resistance
  
• Two measures of Volume are showing (screaming, really) bearish signals
  
• The OBV is showing bearish divergence
  
• The OBV EMAS are predicting a fully bearish ordering
  
• The Money Flow index, also commonly known as the Volume Weighted RSI for how you can use it, is showing bearish divergence on the fast (15 period) setting)
  
• When the Money Flow Index Fast setting has bearish divergence and the price action performs bearishly the bearish cross of the MFI slow setting predicts a stronger sell off than normal cross without divergence.
  

Review the dip around September 2018. And after you have studied that, look at the chart below to compare the this set up to the 2007/2008 market.
The main difference between the left and right chart is how long the trend lines existed. To the left we had 65 weeks of support and resistance, and in the current instance we have almost 200w. This part is speculation, but I think the longer the move has taken to set up, the more impulsive it will be.

• Support Turns to Resistance
  
• Both have a bearish rising wedge getting us to the trendline
  
• All the bearish indicators as detailed above.
  

The good thing is that these indicators also work with bullish divergence and bullish crosses, so in a few years the signals will be coming in on the weekly chart that you can go long again as an investor. But if you look at the signal to get out late in '08 the signal with bullish divergence to get back in does't come in until 2012 if you just use the MFI and OBV. If you trade the inverse head and shoulders you are in much earlier, and if you trade the BARR only a little latter.

Very likely we will have another BARR bottom, but the reversal structure at the bottom cannot be foreseen yet. Conversationally and coincidentally, the last bull runs on silver and gold both ended while the bullish divergence was building up on the SPX. I expect gold and silver to get a kick in the tenders along with everything else as people are forced to sell and then the rally on precious metals. After the weak hands are shaken out gold and silver pump until the bullish divergence shows up on the SPX again.

Comment:

So far so good. Non-Farm payroll lead to a pump and people are selling the news. No new high and there is bearish divergence on the hourly. I already spend enough time paining the bearish scenario at higher time frames and so I still say we won't have a weekly candle close above 315 for spy or 3150 for SPX

For. Years.

Comment:

Looks like we have a trendline for resistance that will keep us under 315 for SPY and 3150 for SPX/SPXUSD. By next week or so I don't think I'll have any more naysayers.