Daily chart shows a HUGE falling wedge... BUT I'm still bearish into March OPEX.
My plan initially was bearish into Monday the 28th of February when EOM/BOM flows would kick in.
Obviously, I didn't expect SUCH a bearish move into a SHARP reversal on Thursday and then a bigger squeeze today.
I thought at most we would be going to SPY 426 range...
I was dead wrong, and exited shorts prior to taking huge losses.
I entered a very light lotto short SPY put EOD for 02/28 expiry to see if we have any gap down news. For the next several days, bulls have a chance to regain control here.
The 20SMA is right above, and the resistance line sits right around the 448 level (declining each day). If I'm going to short, I'd take a shot there.
Obviously, this is invalid with 2 closes above that resistance line.
If having 2 closes above that resistance line overhead, I'm leaning long until SPY 450 level.
However, I do believe The 20SMA will act like a magnet up until the week leading up to OPEX. That is where you can see violent swings up and down NEAR there.
Plan: Exit puts upon Monday open - whether up or down.
Don't see much downside happening anymore in the next couple weeks.
Retest of January and now February lows will not come until March opex and the week after IMHO.
Can play long until the SPY 448 level. At that level, enter monthly long puts for next month expiry. I'm thinking HECKA OTM puts (400).
From there, I would hedge any overshoots to the longside with shorter dated call options.
(i.e., Buy April 400p SPY, play intraday call options for example - March 4, Spy 450c). Scalp the shorter dated call options while adding onto longer dated put options.
That's how I'm playing this.
Macro-wise, I think a lot of people will be fukt over the next month (just as it has been for the past few actually...).
Be careful out there.
Don't overleverage.
And good luck :)
Join me on twitter for live updates.
My plan initially was bearish into Monday the 28th of February when EOM/BOM flows would kick in.
Obviously, I didn't expect SUCH a bearish move into a SHARP reversal on Thursday and then a bigger squeeze today.
I thought at most we would be going to SPY 426 range...
I was dead wrong, and exited shorts prior to taking huge losses.
I entered a very light lotto short SPY put EOD for 02/28 expiry to see if we have any gap down news. For the next several days, bulls have a chance to regain control here.
The 20SMA is right above, and the resistance line sits right around the 448 level (declining each day). If I'm going to short, I'd take a shot there.
Obviously, this is invalid with 2 closes above that resistance line.
If having 2 closes above that resistance line overhead, I'm leaning long until SPY 450 level.
However, I do believe The 20SMA will act like a magnet up until the week leading up to OPEX. That is where you can see violent swings up and down NEAR there.
Plan: Exit puts upon Monday open - whether up or down.
Don't see much downside happening anymore in the next couple weeks.
Retest of January and now February lows will not come until March opex and the week after IMHO.
Can play long until the SPY 448 level. At that level, enter monthly long puts for next month expiry. I'm thinking HECKA OTM puts (400).
From there, I would hedge any overshoots to the longside with shorter dated call options.
(i.e., Buy April 400p SPY, play intraday call options for example - March 4, Spy 450c). Scalp the shorter dated call options while adding onto longer dated put options.
That's how I'm playing this.
Macro-wise, I think a lot of people will be fukt over the next month (just as it has been for the past few actually...).
Be careful out there.
Don't overleverage.
And good luck :)
Join me on twitter for live updates.
Was I wrong again.
Market likes to fuck over people. I'm deleveraged, so I don't care but this price action is ugly for the bulls.
This time period until 03/14 is when flows are supportive. If we're dumping this hard when flows are supportive, what happens when we enter March opex week when flows won't be as supportive?
We'll let the market decide.
Being all cash rn is NOT a bad idea.