Pholesolus

Should You Sell?

Long
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Just an overly verbose analysis of the bubble narrative I have been seeing everywhere for the last week or two.
Comment: I should add an addendum - I think meme stocks will get crushed. Obviously this video is talking more about the market at the macro scale.

Comments

Great video. I agree with you on the everything bubble sentiment, there is nothing that says we are in a huge bubble.
100 coins
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Pholesolus drewby4321
@drewby4321, thanks!!
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Super analysis mate really refreshing view point on the bubble scenario which everyone is talking about, cant wait to hear more from you
200 coins
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Thanks for this idea. I am inclined to agree with you and I hope you’re right since I recently went long on SPY based on a similar thought process, albeit much more rudimentary.

However, as a beginner I don’t yet have much understanding of deeper market concepts so all the bears I’ve been seeing have been rather concerning and have made me question if I even understand anything at all. You’ve given me a little more confidence that I might not be totally wrong in not expecting the end of the world that some people seem to be predicting.

I wish I had the understanding you seem to have 10 years ago when I was your age or that I was even in the market at all at that time, it’s very impressive and admirable. Perhaps I’d have more confidence by now to navigate these strange times and wouldn’t be as uneasy as I am about the state of the market in which I began investing. Though, in that case, maybe I’d be overconfidently shorting right now and maybe I’d be wrong!

For now I’ll just remain optimistic, trust myself, and hope my naivety will turn out to benefit me in this situation. If not, the market will eventually rebound and I guess I’ll just hold/increase my position until it does and try to not let a brutal crash early in my journey overwhelm me with FUD forever.

Anyway, enough speculating about my investment history/future. Here’s wishing you great success!
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It all makes sense when you say it 🤔 Thanks for sharing!
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Great video.
Thanks for saring your interesting views.
You are right about "it's only a bubble when almost no one is saying it is".
I think one should asses what are the undervalued markets now and invest in them.
Can you sare what stocks/markets you are very bullish about (long term)?
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first of all, thanks for the video and detailed explanation. Your view coincides with my recent research. From individual hot stock setup, it is posed for a rest, but overall market is still risk on. The key is to use the liquidation capital created by Fed to help real economy to transition into new world; 3Ds, biotechnology, Weed Industry, leverage China's growing customerbase...etc
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What's causing you to be short TSLA? Great video with the audio
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@Pholesolus, what do you think of the yield curve? Do you consider it a factor when addressing macro concerns? <https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php>
I've been mostly cash since before covid. Every time I think about piling into a long position I can't shake the feeling that it might cause the world to end, especially now that the yield curve is really launching into the territory where historical corrections began. Today for example was a big jump in the yield curve.
Nice video btw. It was refreshing.
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"Yah, but this time it's different." lol
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