AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P500 ETF TRUST S&P 500 ETF USD DIS
Well, it's been a while since the last post. "Nurse Diesel" has been keeping me (Old Fart) locked down in the Psych Ward!
Last post, was watching the bouncing price on top of the midline of the black channel. As the colors changed from green to yellow to red, we were on alert for a break down.
Sure enough the price broke down below the line as we identified the weakening momentum.
Now, It looks like last week completed a wave 4 pullback in the bigger 5 wave move up. When this completes near targeted "Pesky Gap!", We'll be looking for the top of a big wave 2 as shown on the chart.

This is a different way to count the Bear market. Most advisory services are looking for the bull market to continue.
However this chart identifies the nice 5 wave pattern down for wave 1 down during the October sell off.
Then a corrective A wave during November going sideways.
Then the big market breakdown in December -snapping right through the long term support shown by the red line support since 2009!
The interesting thing is, SPY was ONLY 3 waves down into December! -This simply completed a B wave!
Hmmm....
As the market busted lower in December, (Expecting 5 waves down), I was ready for the 4th wave pullback near the Feb 2018 lows. However this wave up kept going and going. My puts collapsed in value... argh!
Yet I still see this as a Bear Market.
WE NEVER GOT 5 WAVES DOWN after Dec lows. Only 3 waves as shown on chart.
Hmmmm..
The continued move up is the C wave up of the bigger wave 2.
Target should be the completion of the Shark pattern and the Pesky Gap! as shown on the chart.
Of further interest is the timing of the past major turns.... Sept 22, Dec 21-24, hmmm... How about the spring equinox and full moon on March 20-21?
I'll try to post a more detailed chart next.
Old Fart
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