S&P is at the top of two year range. I am long the market (Russell 2K and S&P) since May 20, but the odds do favor a significant move back down. The rally up has been very strong and there is no topping pattern as of yet. No bear momentum. My upside target is 219.06, so your projection of 4% makes sense to me. But it could begin to fail at any time; it's the stock market.